Iran Ceasefire, And Dubai's Recovery

A ceasefire in Iran gets announced, but the harder question lands: what if the side that took the most bombing still holds the real leverage? We dig into the Iran ceasefire through the one geographic fact no press conference can rewrite: the Strait of Hormuz. When a chokepoint can function like a toll booth for global shipping, “mission accomplished” starts to sound like marketing, not strategy.

I’m joined by retired British Army officer and former NATO deputy supreme allied commander General Richard Shirreff to unpack why military damage does not automatically translate into diplomatic advantage.  

Then we bring it down to the ground in Dubai with luxury property CEO Imran Sheikh of BlackOak Global. He explains what he’s actually seeing in the Dubai real estate market, why pricing has not collapsed, how “rebalancing” shows up in the secondary market, and what developer incentives and payment-plan changes signal about confidence. If you care about Gulf stability, global trade routes, oil transit risk, or Dubai property investment, this conversation connects the dots.

Subscribe to Backstory, share this with someone following the region, and leave a review. After you listen, do you think this ceasefire has long legs or is it only a pause?

Transcript

War’s Outcome And Who Gains

SPEAKER_01 0:00

They've been subjected to an industrial-scale aerial assault by the Americans and by the Israelis. But at the end of this process, who's coming out stronger? Probably, probably the Iranian regime.

SPEAKER_02 0:12

So I think it's very short-lived. People have a very, very short-term memory of things like this, however drastic it may be. Um, I think people will forget. Post-summer, you know, give it a month, two months, three months, people forget. Um, you know, this market has been strong and has been a number one tourist destination for for a lot of uh cities around the world.

SPEAKER_00 0:34

Hi everyone, and welcome to another edition of Backstory. I'm Dana Lewis. Ceasefire with Iran. What was the point of this war in the first place? Well, now the preconditions Iran has set for the ceasefire negotiations seem daunting. No American troops in the Middle East. Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz. What about the nuclear program and ballistic missiles and regime change? The Americans and Israelis will have to polish this up to claim victory. I speak to General Richard Sheriff, a former NATO commander. And what happens now to Gulf nations like the United Arab Emirates, which have borne the brunt of nightly drone and missile attacks by Iran? The property market, which is the bread and butter economy along with tourism in Dubai, has taken a body blow. Those are my words. But CEO of Black Oak luxury property agency Imran Sheikh gives us his take on a market that he thinks is more resilient than you may think. General Richard Sheriff is a retired senior British Army officer, and he is an author, and he has also served as the deputy supreme allied commander in Europe, which is a NATO position general, correct? Correct. Yep. Look, it's very timely to have you on, and hopefully this doesn't get dated too quickly because things are moving pretty rapidly. But as you know, uh President Trump has announced a ceasefire with Iran. I'm not sure who's agreeing to cease and who's still going to be firing, but let's see how it plays out. Um they'll they're they're gonna call this, of course, anything that uh Trump is behind as a terrific, fantastic, uh, you know, best agreement uh ever. What's your take on it so far?

SPEAKER_01 2:21

My take is that this last, well, it is how long it's lasted since the war started, has been a masterclass in utter futility. Um I I the fact is that Trump has accepted uh uh the Iranian 10 points, 10-point proposal as a workable basis on which to negotiate. And I can't see how he's going to end up in a better position than he was before he launched this attack.

SPEAKER_00 2:52

So he let's just build on that. He says, first of all, that um, and also the vice president J.D. Vance was speaking uh in Hungary this morning, uh, throwing his weight behind Viktor Orban, which is a completely different subject, but uh notable, that uh that Iran um that that America has accomplished all of its military targets in Iran.

Strait Of Hormuz Leverage

SPEAKER_01 3:18

Uh do you would you agree with that? Yeah, that that might be the case. They might have done. Um and they have decimated alongside the Israelis, they have decimated the leadership, they have destroyed large quantities of the Iranian military, they've destroyed the navy, uh, and absolutely written down the Iranian military. Although it has to be said that the Iranians continue to have the ability to launch a lot of drones and and some ballistic missiles back at at not only at Israel but also the Gulf states. But the fact is, that's that's almost that's almost a side issue. The fact is, so long as the Iranians hold the Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, Trump is losing. And he knows that. And I think that's why he got his friend, Field Marshal Munir of Pakistan, to broker this particular ceasefire. And that's why he's behind it. Um I mean the alternative we had his genocidal threats about destroying a great civilization yesterday. He also knows, the penny has finally dropped, that there was no military solution to opening the Strait of Homers, that that would not have led to a real catastrophe for the United States. So what were the options? Catastrophe followed by humiliation, or in a sense, the humiliation of a standby, a stand down, and he's gone for the latter.

SPEAKER_00 4:49

But according to this 10-point uh uh plan by the Iranians or their proposal that he says that he's, you know, let's see how it plays out in the next two weeks of negotiations. But Iran says they're gonna remain in control of the Strait of Hormuz along with Oman, I guess, uh charging, you know, upwards of two million uh dollars or euros or whatever it may be on every ship that passes through there when this conflict began, as as you will note and so many others, that Iran was never in charge of the Strait of Hormuz to begin with. How can that stand? How can an international waterway be controlled by the R IRGC?

Nuclear Verification And Tight Timelines

SPEAKER_01 5:30

This is my point. That how can this be could possibly construed as a victory for Trump if he has now ended up in a much worse place than he was before he launched the war? Now you're right. How can it stand? This is Iran and Amand, to be fair, now planning to exercise control as a sort of toll booth on the Strait of Hormuz, which is a it's which is which is a much worse position. And it's gonna put shipping prices up massively. It's gonna net a hell of a lot of money for the Iranian uh the Iranian exchequer as well. How do you change that? You change the regime, you negotiate it away, or you launch a military, some sort of military venture, which would be ill start. I think it's very difficult to see how the international community changes that position uh without concessions to Iran, about sanctions, uh, and maybe Trump has to accept a lot of those points in the Iranian 10-point plan, including, for example, the removal of American troops in the Gulf. So so I think Trump is on the back foot, and the Iranians know it. Removal of American troops in the Gulf. Well, that is one that is one of the concerns, you know, I think a couple uh a number of those are the things that are. That's on the list, certainly. That's on the list. Uh removal of sanctions is on the list, cessation of hostilities, not only against permanent cessation of hostilities against Iran, but also against Iranian allies. So that would mean Hezbollah, presumably, which the Israelis continue to hammer. So the bottom line is that Iran, Iran now continues to hold the vital ground, which is the Strait of Omar's, and can negotiate from a position of strength. Um, will America go back to bombing? They might in two weeks' time. But realistically, I think it's pretty unlikely because they know, and it has demonstrated, they've however much they bomb, they've not been able to change that fundamental fact of geography which the Iranians are taking advantage of.

SPEAKER_00 7:30

So what kind of an agreement is this? A ceasefire, and if if Iran remains in control of enriched uranium, or you know, may maybe it's now buried under tons and hundreds of tons of rubble, but it's there. Um, and then what will the test be, in your view, on the success uh of an agreement on their nuclear program, that they're going to abandon that and then any test with within that, and sorry for the length of my question, but any test within that then has to focus on verification?

Ballistic Missiles And Limits Of Bombing

SPEAKER_01 8:06

I mean, the answer is I I I'm I'm I don't know is the answer. These, you know, if you think that what the JCPA took years to negotiate, two years or something, they've now got two weeks to try and negotiate this one. And and this is uh this is a matter for the you know for the diplomats uh to try and get their heads round. But at every stage, I think you're demonstrating it with these these really relevant questions and points you're raising, at every stage, the Iranians have got the upper hand. Uh as long as, you know, so long as the ceasefire holds, that's the thing. Of course, America could go back to bombing, but is it going to get them any further down the line? I don't think it will.

SPEAKER_00 8:48

What about the ballistic missile program? I mean, uh the Iranians have shown, you know, that it's not only is it muscular, that it was resilient and they were able to hide a lot of the launchers, continue the launch. Um The New York Times has run uh interviews uh quoting intelligence sources in the U.S. that maybe they only got 50% of the launchers and the drone launch of uh sites, that there were a lot of um that there were a lot of uh sites that were fake in the first place, that the Americans may have wasted time bombing. It's a bit like what happened in Kosovo, but um that that the Iranians were able to rebuild within hours some of those silos and launch facilities. I mean, that that's also a failed aspect of this war, isn't it? For the Americans.

SPEAKER_01 9:36

Well, I I I I I I mean the figures you you you you read out or you list are uh I mean are very compelling. And if that is the case, it is absolutely a failure. And this is the point, in a sense, because at every stage, at regular points during this last three weeks, four weeks or so, five weeks, Trump has proclaimed arrogantly that the ballistic missile capability has been obliterated. And then what happens the next day? Wah, woomf, woof, woof, more missiles come in to Israeli cities uh or um uh Gulf states. And it just demonstrates that this industrial, there's sort of it's a typical American obsession with destruction and listing destruction. It almost goes back to, you know, the body counts of the Vietnam War. Somehow it's it's it's reduced to an industrial process. And it's not that simple. It's much more complex than that. And these, you know, these i i the Iranians have been planning for this for years. They've known that that they're likely to be in the firing line uh under American missile attack and uh and bombing attack. And so they've planned for it. They've built a degree of resilience, which I think has demonstrated, you know, it's been been demonstrated very effectively. And there's a sort of supreme irony here that Iranian military capability, yes, it's been absolutely hammered. They've been subjected to an industrial-scale aerial assault by uh by by by uh by the Americans and by the Israelis. But at the end of this process, who's coming out stronger? Probably probably the Iranian regime. And that is not what Trump wanted. That is absolutely a defeat for Trump. Uh and, you know, as I say, I think this is a sort of, you know, uh a moment where in a very real sense the American position as the this you know, here is the global superpower which has now been diplomatically and strategically uh bettered by uh a a theocracy, a fourth-rate theocracy, autocracy, dictatorship, horrible regime, all the other stuff that you can you can describe Iran. But Iran comes out stronger.

Regime Resilience And Proxy Warfare

SPEAKER_00 11:55

General Sheriff, can you give me your take on that regime? Uh uh I and I know it's hard to do it because some of the faces have changed, uh, but the IRGC remains the integral part of that regime. And part of Trump's campaign uh for war was that they would uh stop Iran from running its proxies all over the region, whether it be Hamas, Hezbollah, and d elements in Syria and on and on. Uh I don't think we I don't think the Americans have accomplished that, have they?

SPEAKER_01 12:29

It's difficult to say at this rate. I mean, the Israelis will go on hammering ha Hezbollah as we're hearing thus far. My take on the regime, I mean, it's a horrific regime. It's massacred tens of thousands of its people earlier this year when they tried to protest against it. Um, it has created mayhem, exported terrorism, and been a massive thorn in the international side for for for much of the 47 years it's been in existence. But it's clearly a regime which is resilient, has organized itself uh in order to cope with the sort of attacks it has faced, and it's like a hydra, in a sense, you cut off one head, ten heads grow in its place. Um and and the effect of bombing it. I mean, the irony is just before this uh campaign was launched, the word on the street was that the negotiations uh hosted by the Amanis were actually getting somewhere, and the Iranians had agreed to uh to give up that enriched uranium. What's happened now as a result of the bombing, and funny old thing, it always happens in history. You've only got to look back in history. Bombing entrenches regimes. It entrenches and it and it almost acts as a sort of unifying force. And what you've got is a regime, I suspect, where, yeah, the the leadership has been decimated, but the hardliners remain, uh, and they are not going to give up easily. And they know exactly where they stand.

SPEAKER_00 14:05

Can you speak to Trump's uh you know, calling um whether it be Prime Minister Keir Starmer or whether it be other European leaders, uh some some pretty uh insulting names and labels and essentially labeling NATO as cowards in this for not coming and opening up the Strait of Hormuz? And then I see a lot of like social media comments from Americans like the Europeans failed us. Um, you know, building on what essentially the the US President has said. So why didn't Europe and NATO uh come when they were called?

SPEAKER_01 14:46

Dead simple, Dana. This is Trump's war. It's not NATO's war. NATO is an alliance devoted to the defense of its members. It is not an alliance that comes when with a dog whistle from America prosecuting a hupristic war without a strategy where there was no imminent threat to America. That is not what NATO is about. And it was absolutely right for NATO to say, your war, your mess, you sort it out, except that it's not quite that simple because the whole international community's got to sort it out. It's now I can understand frustration in America about Europe, and I may say so as well, Canada, unwillingness to step up to the mark in defense spending. That's a fair call. But the fact is that that is that NATO is not about supporting a hubristic NATO uh American attack on another nation.

SPEAKER_00 15:51

Where goes NATO now? Because you know that uh President Trump has said that, you know, and and others in the US administration uh are questioning now the you know NATO that they can't be counted on and uh, you know, that NATO's gonna pay a price later on. By the way, while they're saying that, they are a member of NATO. They're not saying that from the outside, which people don't sometimes process. They are a key member of NATO and always have been.

SPEAKER_01 16:20

I think this just reinforces uh something I felt for well, ever since really we heard Vegans and uh Vance, Vance and Hegsif stand up at Brussels and Munich Security Conference at the beginning of last year, 2025, making it very clear that America was not going to underpin European security. That was the time NATO should have started adjusting to the reality that America's commitment to Article V then was going, it's now dead. We have to assume that America is no longer an ally. Actually, America is a bully and a predator under Trump, and we cannot trust America. And if there's another thing that comes out of this recent saga, of course, it is absolutely when you get the sort of deranged posts of destroying civilizations that we've heard from the the leader of of the United States, America under Trump cannot in any way, shape, or form be trusted. So what? So America becomes, to use Prime Minister Mark Carney's words, an alliance of the middle powers, an alliance of America and Canada. And that is going, yes, of course, there's gotta this is a this is a rupture, absolutely a rupture. Again, to pick up uh Prime Minister Carney's words at Davos, it is a rupture. But there's gotta be a transition. There's gotta be a transition that says we move the alliance from an alliance which depended on the United States to an alliance of Europe and Canada which can stand on its own without dependence on the United States, while maintaining good, strong links with the United States, because Trump and the derangement of the White House is not going to go on forever, we hope. And that is the challenge now. But NATO's got to recognize that it's got to take responsibility, or the Europeans and Canada have got to take responsibility for the allowance. And they could do that. We could do that. NATO remains.

SPEAKER_00 18:23

That's my question. Can you do, I mean, can that be done without all that money from the US? The what uh two-thirds contributors to NATO?

unknown 18:32

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 18:32

Well, I mean, in simple terms, Dana, it's got to be done. There's no there's no ifs or buts here. We've got to find the ways to do it. We've got to find imaginative, innovative ways to fund the capabilities required. We've got to identify the gaps and fill those gaps. And that's not going to happen over time, which is why it without it's not going to happen short in a quick time, which is why you need that transition and why we've got to continue to maintain. We need a proper plan with America, effectively, uh a withdrawal plan. I mean, you wouldn't launch a military withdrawal without serious planning, and this is the same sort of idea. And then what would NATO do? What would its mission be? Absolutely what the mission is now, to protect the land borders, the airspace, and the sea lines of communication of the member states of the transatlantic region. Uh, and it would still have to, you know, it would still be dependent on Article V. But, you know, the the plus side, of course, is that NATO has institutional resilience. Uh, it's it's survived as an alliance for 77 years. It's got a very efficient, effective uh commands, command control structure, command structure. Uh, it's got a very, very understood, well understood and and and widely disseminated doctrine, which is the doctrine under which which all NATO nations use. It's got processes, it's got policies, it's got uh uh an understanding of multinational operations. So we don't need to throw babies out with bathwater here, but we've just got to adapt it. Now we've got to recognize that yes, without that American guarantee, there will be gaps. And we've got to find ways to fill those gaps.

Will The Ceasefire Hold

SPEAKER_00 20:11

Last word, just to come back to where we started, if if you'll permit me. Does this ceasefire, do you think, uh in this deal with Iran, does it have long legs? Do you are you hopeful or are you pretty pessimistic?

SPEAKER_01 20:27

I think we've got to be hopeful. Uh, and I say that more from heart than necessarily from head. And I mean, the first point is that the winners here, you know, are the Iranian, the Iranian people uh who've been bombed and assaulted and terrorized for for five weeks or four weeks. Um, you know, I think of the the girls, the girls who would who who were who were murdered in their their school when they were bombed because America got its targeting wrong. So I think, you know, we've got to be hopeful, but we've also got to be realistic. What happens when Iran hangs on to its ten points? How does America negotiate? Or what happens more likely when Trump realizes he's gonna have to accept Iranian control of the Strait of Homers? He's gonna have to uh accept some form of reparations or uh for the damage done. Now that's a big ask. Does Trump go back to bombing? I'm not sure that he can go back to bombing in two weeks' time, but frankly, the derangement that exists in that office in the White House, anything is possible.

SPEAKER_00 21:39

General Sheriff, thank you so much for your time. It's an honor to talk to you through. Thank you. Thank you for having me, Donna.

SPEAKER_01 21:45

Good to talk to you.

SPEAKER_00 21:49

Joining me now is Imran Sheikh, executive chairman and CEO of Black Oak Global, which is a real estate company that does projects in London, Macedonia. And focuses a lot on Dubai, uh, luxury property. And I should say that I'm an associate partner at Black Oak and we work together. Hi, Imra.

SPEAKER_02 22:09

Hi, Dana. Thank you so much for taking the time.

SPEAKER_00 22:12

Thank you. Um look, the a momentous day as we record this, because uh we have a ceasefire that has been announced, and uh hopefully it it holds. But uh, you know, tell me just from a human point of view, uh five weeks into this, more than five weeks, uh how are you feeling? I mean, uh there must be a big sense of relief with you and your family and people you know in Dubai. Absolutely.

SPEAKER_02 22:41

Look, I think um, you know, it's it's a great thing um that we have this ceasefire. Um let's see how it sort of plays out plays up over the next few days. Um you know, just to bring it back to real estate, um the market has um really not shown any sign of dislocation. We have been here on the ground every single day, um, and you know, in communication with our investors that have invested with us over the last few years. Now, you know, I I think it's important to maybe frame that the narrative is, you know, right now is not volume is moderating, but the value is accelerating. And and that's a very healthy sign. You know, we uh naturally when when this happened, you know, people were concerned this is something the first time that something like this has happened in the region at this uh at this level. So you're always going to get um you know a certain um group of people which are always gonna think, okay, you know, what's happening, getting nervous about things. But uh, but I think the market has been super resilient, right? We have seen transactions happening. Um it it hasn't been a complete flat line where no transactions are happening, but um and real no real dislocation in pricing. It's more what we're seeing as a rebalancing window. We you know, we've had a number of strategy sessions.

Rebalancing And Secondary Market Openings

SPEAKER_00 24:00

Can I can I jump in? Like, when you say rebalancing, it's a really interesting term, right? Because I have people who clients who want to sell, they're worried about pricing. Um, I have people who who you know bargain hunting, kicking tires, they're looking for you know some grandiose discount. Um, the bubble didn't burst. So what is what is kind of that repricing in your view?

SPEAKER_02 24:27

So so what it what exists naturally um you know is is a is a is a pause after this tremendous growth that we've had. And and smart money seems to know what the difference is, right? So when a market has been accelerating at at such sort of you know great lengths, you're typically going to see a uh you know a balancing where the market will soften slightly, um, and this creates uh an attractive um opportunity for you know for buyers as well, right? So um when you look at the you know, our our market, as you know, is predominantly, you know, as as Black Oak has traditionally been off plan. Um and over the last few weeks we've kind of pivoted and spent more time looking at the secondary market and secondary transactions. And what I mean by rebalancing is that you're you're seeing that um you know there's a there's a there's a correlation which is expected to be mild and limited to certain areas and certain areas which are going to continue to have that paucity of assets. So when we when we look at mature communities, let's say uh you know Arabian Ranches, Jumera Islands, Palm Jumera, etc., I don't see there being any sort of major distress in the market, and we haven't seen that. Yes, by default, we've seen buyers that have been a little bit more incentivized, and that is also a natural phenomenon where, you know, typically, you know, more of the savvy investors will see opportunities in other markets. So if they are very heavily exposed to the market here, they may say, okay, we're ready to sort of exit some of our projects, take that liquidity and put it to work in other markets. Now, at that level, you start seeing some discounts, but no real kind of distress deals as such. Just I'll give you an example. Um, on Friday, actually, we met up with a client, um, a very mature family office that's been in the region for a number of years, and they have a portfolio of approximately 400 million Durham's worth of assets. Um and you know, we've picked up um four assets on Palm Jamira and a number of uh high-end apartments and penthouses that they that they own in in Dubai. And for them, you know, they've they've ridden the wave, they've done extremely well. And yes, maybe they were planning to hold on for a bit longer, but now they're being very opportunistic and saying, okay, let's you know, let's exit um the market today and we can use that and maybe come back into the market at a more opportune cost. So that's just one example.

SPEAKER_00 26:51

And so uh Well, I mean it's interesting, right? Because if I if I can jump in and talk to you about a couple of things that you raised. Um so you know, people who feel that they just have to tuck tuck tuck in and weather the storm, yeah. Um, sometimes you don't have to do that with clients, right? You can advise and say, Well, when did you buy um what what is your profit now? Would you be better to you know take some of the gravy, take the profit, and then reinvest in some of the new opportunities that maybe this crisis has opened up? Absolutely.

SPEAKER_02 27:25

And and that's what we're advising. So so some of the investors that we were advising that sort of came into the market, let's say, um, you know, uh six, nine, twelve months ago, have sort of hit their benchmark of what their returns were, they were expecting. And some are sort of saying, okay, no, we're happy, we completely understand what's happening in the market, and we're happy to wait this out because they're on payment plans which sort of go on for two to three years. And they, they, you know, they understand as sophisticated investors that the value will be unlocked, you know, closer to handover. But again, some of them hit that threshold and saying, okay, now's a good time uh where the market's at, and we'll come back into the market in a slightly different strategy. So we've been having you know calls continuously on a weekly basis with our international investors, advising them, uh, you know, really understanding. But I would say a lot of the smarter investors are are there and saying, we're, you know, we're holding, we're holding this. I don't feel that um, and that's really on the invest in investment perspective, but from the sellers that we're seeing in the market, the example that I just gave you of this family office, they're not under, they're not under any pressure. There's no real false selling, no credit-driven distress. You know, yes, discounts, it's it's a nature which they would have perhaps given anyhow, regardless of what the circumstance was. They might have given discounts to uh to to their sale price, right? Just by by the nature if they thought the timing was right, depending on the negotiation.

SPEAKER_00 28:50

So it's not necessarily that it's the crisis brought on that you know, five, ten, fifteen percent.

Developers Incentives Without Price Cuts

SPEAKER_02 28:58

You know. Look, I think people who are let's say slightly more cautious in in what's happening, um, would probably increase those discounts. From a developer perspective, we're seeing some incentives as well, um, you know, which which you'll start seeing from a lot of the smaller investors just by the nature of how the development business works there. Yeah. So um, you know, it helps with their cash flows. And if you you know, if you But there's there's there's there's some some caution has to be injected in there, right?

SPEAKER_00 29:31

Because if they start discounting what they've already put out in the market, they start underselling uh products that people have just bought. And that wouldn't be healthy for the market, would it?

SPEAKER_02 29:42

Very true. And and that's why I think the first narrative that came out from the developers are the price is where it's at. So we're not looking to sort of discount the price because that's truly a reflection of where the market today sits.

SPEAKER_00 29:53

So what are they discounting?

SPEAKER_02 29:54

So they're discounting um land department fees, for example, incentives, which which they tend to do at different stages of the year.

SPEAKER_00 30:01

So when it's Ramadan, when it's Diwali, when it's 4% in in uh in Dubai, 2% in Abu Dhabi. And then also uh I've heard that they've changed maybe a little bit of the payment plans. They've sweetened some of the payment plans.

SPEAKER_02 30:14

Exactly. And and we've seen that firsthand where developers have been sort of conscious as well and supporting the industry by saying, okay, you know, we understand that they're what you know what the market is going through, and we're happy to sort of extend those payment plans and be more flexible. So that's also a very, very good sign.

Foreign Investors Pause As Smart Money Acts

SPEAKER_00 30:31

All right. Imran. 70% of the market is off plan, right? So just in case somebody doesn't understand off plan, that's when builders are getting ready to build and they they announce the the project and people are allowed to invest before the ground is really dug in most cases. So um 70% of the market is off plan. About what do we say, 65% are foreign investors? Yeah, I I would say that's a that's a good indication of where the market is. So what happens to that market? Because whether it's been accurate or whether it's been inflated, certainly media coverage and social media um have been flashing some of these images up of drone attacks and missile attacks, those investors surely uh have pulled in the reins, and that's got to hit that uh off-plan market.

SPEAKER_02 31:24

Yes. I and I think you'll you'll start seeing that that that has, right? And I think people and investors internationally, you're right, just because by the nature of what the media has kind of you know portrayed how Dubai is, and just gen uh generally investors being more cautious, have sort of taken a pause. Whether that's you know really a pause in the market or they've said, okay, this market is not for us, and we'll start, you know, investing that capital elsewhere. I I genuinely believe that it is a pause to sit on the sidelines and see, you know, what other offers or you know, they uh I I would say there's different buckets and psychology of people, right? So you're going to have some which are probably more retail investors that might be shaken by what's happening. And then you'll have the smart capital and you know institutional capital, which is still coming in. Um and you've seen that by uh by Abu Dhabi receiving$250 million during uh during this period. So there are, look, international inflows remain. Um, you know, you're ha we have buyers from India, UK, Pakistan, Europe, Russia, North America, um, alongside the GCC and MENA demand. And what we genuinely have seen in the last two weeks is some of the regional demand, whether it's from um Abu Dhabi, whether it's um, you know, UAE, Rasa Chema, whether it's Saudi Kuwait, um, the people understand the dynamics of the market more so. We have a mandate from an Abu Dhabi group that's looking for completed buildings, assets. I was on a call um on Friday with an ex um gentleman from Goldman's who are very interested in setting up a hospitality fund. They see a dislocation uh in the market when it comes to um hospitality operations, and we're supporting that by finding um the you know viable assets for them. So again, when it comes to the smarter capital, I don't see them leaving. They're just putting a pause, reframing, you know, researching the market, and they will they'll be back.

How The Ending Shapes Confidence

SPEAKER_00 33:16

And why is the secondary market seemingly more resilient? The investors um just seem a little more sophisticated about the market. Is that because the other market is more speculative, off-plan, and the secondary market, we tend to think that these are people who have moved there and are living there, and they have families there, and they have jobs there, and they have kids in schools, and people don't scare off so easily in that market.

SPEAKER_02 33:42

Sure. And if if if you look at the demographic here, um uh you know, a lot of the expats that are here either own properties or were always the intention, I think really post-COVID sentiments change was that this is our home, right? The leadership has done an incredible job in supporting uh incentives, the regulatory framework, everything has changed to make this a very attractive place for expats. So, you know, I I have friends that, you know, the intention was always to buy a family home for them right here, ones that had been renting. And they've always been, okay, you know, we'll get round to it. And now they're saying, okay, what a perfect opportunity when there is a little bit of a you know a structural change in the market where we might be able to get a better deal. So, you know, as I said, and I'll bring back, you know, villa communities, which are very established, older, um, you know, have a great strong expats um community. I don't see any slowdown or any you know discounts in pricing. Yes, you're gonna have the outliers, right, which is normal.

SPEAKER_00 34:43

Tell me how important because I've said all along when people ask me, it depends how long this runs in terms of what it does to the property market, to the tourism market. Um but it also is really important how it ends, right? Because if people want stability and they want to know uh that this ceasefire, which turns into a long-term agreement, hopefully, has long legs and there isn't gonna be disruption again in the market. It's really important if that people believe that this is here to stay uh and that the ceasefire is real.

SPEAKER_02 35:21

Sure. Um so so the question is is how long do I think this is gonna last or the impact of what's going to happen after this, right? And there there was a question in there. Sure.

SPEAKER_00 35:31

There was a question in there, but I I think. But it's essentially how important is it for people how it ends? I mean, yeah that that this uh this has got long legs and that it there's real stability because if if people worry that this could kick up in another six months or another year, that's going to have very negative effects on Dubai and the market.

SPEAKER_02 35:52

Sure. I mean, the the longer something like this, you know, goes on, naturally there's there's going to be um, you know, a challenging market here. And I think people will will kind of have that effect of what's happening and understanding. And um it's gonna be challenging. I I I I will not say that. And the sooner it is resolved, um, look, I think we're coming, you know, very soon into summer. Um the market does does sort of shift when when people are traveling, but then also um coming back at the end of summer, I think will be a testament to see how the market is going to respond if this ceasefire holds. Now, I truly believe that if we compare Dubai to other major cities around the world, um, and you know, there's always the question, can you compare Dubai to the London, the New York, the Hong Kong, the Singapore, etc.? Uh, and yes, you know, we've got world-class infrastructure, we've got a great uh social living environment here. So truly, I believe, although it is a fairly new city, you can you can draw comparisons to those. And when you look at those, you know, uh cities, we are trading at a tremendous discount still. Now, I know this argument has been going on for for many years on a price per square foot, but genuinely, if uh I I truly believe when when this does um and then it, you know, if if it does resolve in in a very meaningful time, I think you'll see that um uh that um uh uh you know the disparity, you'll see the spread kind of tighten, you'll see prices kind of shoot up. I I truly believe that there's going to be a tremendous growth coming out of this. Um so that that's where that's that's where my personal stance stands, right? I've I've been here 20 years, so we've seen a lot, we've uh we've learned a lot from the market.

Tourism Memory And Fast Rebound

SPEAKER_00 37:36

So last question to you. I mean, uh how long are people's memories, right? If this is sorted, people and it stops. How long does it take for the tourism market to come back? How long does it take for the property market not only to come back, but uh it may really blossom beyond anything we've seen if people think there's real peace in the region and a um and and that it's much brighter than it was before the war started.

SPEAKER_02 38:03

It's funny, I I so I was speaking to friends in London, um, actually just earlier on, and my friend is like, I'm looking for deals coming out in Christmas, right? I'm scanning for deals at the moment for uh you know for hotels. So I think it's very short-lived. People have a very, very short-term memory of things like this, however drastic it may be. Um, I think people will forget. Post summer, you know, give it a month, two months, three months, people forget. Um, you know, this market has been strong and has been a number one tourist destination for for a lot of uh cities around the world. Um, and I think that doesn't change, right? Yes, if it does come out of this, I think tourism will rebound very fast. And and you know, it brings me back to my point when you see sort of you know tier one international institutions looking at hospitality and F and B and those types of markets, that really kind of uh gives you confidence that they're seeing from their research that this market is um very durable, it's uh it's resilient, and we'll come back fairly quickly.

Host Wrap And Media Credibility

SPEAKER_00 39:04

So Imran Sheikh of uh Black Oak Global, great to talk to you. Thank you, Dana. Likewise, it was a pleasure. And that's our backstory this week on the Iran ceasefire. If you want to invest in Dubai or may already be an investor trying to navigate the market now, reach out to me. Black Oak or on Instagram. Happy to talk to you about opportunities and your portfolio. And what next? On Iran, I'm not sure who's deep and who's still fiery. Let's hope it holds. Quick comment. Never in 30 years of journalism have I seen a time in the American administration where every development is worked so hard to achieve political victory and the facts are barely present, in my opinion. Defense Secretary Pete Hakes that couldn't be less forthcoming during this war. They have undermined all the mainstream media, boosting only favorable journalists over those who actually report. And so now when they want the American public to believe, there is so much skepticism because they really have minimal amounts of credibility. I guess that's price for trying to control media. You're not believable at the end of the day. No one seems to get that. Thanks for listening to backstory. I'm Dana Lewis, and I'll talk to you against it.