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BACK STORY WITH DANA LEWIS
Dana Lewis is a veteran World Affairs Correspondent. He's been everywhere. From global war zones to the streets of London where he is based.
He has been based in Jerusalem, and Moscow.
And he loves talking to people about whats behind the headlines. Award winning. "A real in the trenches reporter". Great interviewing skills and easy to listen to.
BACK STORY WITH DANA LEWIS
Decoding the Russia-North Korea Alliance and Its Implications
Buckle up as we dive into the murky waters of international politics with our esteemed guest, former CIA intelligence analyst Sue Mi Terry, and Professor Robert English. This episode takes you to the heart of the surprising alliance between North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and Russian President Vladimir Putin. We dissect the possible implications of this event, the potential impact on the conflict in Ukraine, and the threats this union may pose to regional security due to North Korea's burgeoning nuclear ambitions.
In a world where alliances can shift like sand, we're left to wonder at Russia's newfound audacity towards North Korea and Putin's motivations. Robert English helps us understand the possible shift in Putin's ideology and the staggering number of artillery shells raining down on Ukraine. More than just another news analysis, we bring you a vivid exploration of a dangerous power-play and its potential global consequences. Let's question together what this unholy alliance might mean for the future of international relations. Stay tuned!
Hi everyone and welcome to another edition of Backstory. I'm Dana Lewis. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, reclusive and paranoid, has just ventured out of his country to meet President Putin in Russia's Far East. The two of them pariahs, the despot duo. Putin wants arms for his war in Ukraine artillery shells and more and Kim wants satellite technology to frighten his neighbors, even the US, with advanced nuclear weapons programs. This week I talked to a former CIA intelligence analyst on North Korea Sue Mi Terry, and on Putin's Russia, American professor Robert English, and how the modern day leader finds solace in old ways of thinking borrowed from the USSR. All right, Sue Mi Terry is a former CIA officer, a researcher, a former intelligence analyst who specialized in East Asia and is an expert on international politics involving North and South Korea. Welcome, Sue Mi.
Sue Mi Terry:Thank you for having me on.
Dana Lewis :Can you first of all tell me why now this meeting in Vladivostok in Russia between President Putin and Kim Jong-un?
Sue Mi Terry:Well, there are two leaders that are completely isolated from the world and there is a mutual interest that are served by meeting at this point. Putin needs badly needed ammunition for his war efforts in Ukraine and Kim Jong-un needs food aid and fuel and, more than that, technical support for his military satellites, for his long-range intercontinental ballistic missiles, for nuclear power submarine. So it makes sense from Putin and Kim Jong-un's perspective to meet now and COVID restrictions you know we're just coming out of a pandemic so it makes sense from both of their perspectives.
Dana Lewis :Do you believe that this is a new road that the Russians are paving or do you think that, in fact, behind the scenes, russia was already supplying technology? I mean, a lot of people are saying that the last intercontinental ballistic missile test by North Korea looked remarkably similar to the Russian technology on the Topol-M missile, for instance.
Sue Mi Terry:Well, first, I think it's pre-pathetic and ironic that Russia, which is used to be this nuclear power country that's a patron and was the one who was aiding North Korea, is now turning to North Korea, 198th ranked economy in the world that cannot feed its own population for support. Now, in terms of Russia's support to North Korea, that may be very well true that Russia has always provided some technology and help, but now this is overt, which means I think it's about degrees. Right, they can just amp up much more in terms of supporting North Korea. Now, if you remember, in 2017, in the fall of 2017, china and Russia actually implemented sanctions against North Korea, so it's not supposed to be such an overt thing. But now, russia being internationally isolated itself, I guess it doesn't care. So it's about degrees and I am concerned about this overt technology transfer.
Dana Lewis :Where could it potentially lead? I mean, I know North Korea wants food and energy, but Russia in return could give things like nuclear submarine technology, and North Korea already has a very advanced nuclear program. What's the danger here?
Sue Mi Terry:Well, Kim Jong-un's goal is to perfect his nuclear weapons program, his WMD program. He's been expanding, modernizing his nuclear missile arsenal. North Korea tested some 80 missiles last year, so this will help North Korea further advance and perfect their program. This month North Korea rolled out a diesel-based submarine. Now they can have nuclear submarines. So this is not good news. It's win-win for Putin and Kim Jong-un, but this is not good news for the United States and the West.
Dana Lewis :Why, do you think, did Russia first of all signed onto the sanctions in the first place? I mean, some people said that they were worried about North Korea themselves and they were in fear of perhaps, the satellite program that North Korea is after. So why do 180-degree turnabout now for some artillery shells? In essence, I mean millions of artillery shells and it's critical in the war effort. But I mean, president Putin is walking a dangerous road here.
Sue Mi Terry:He's walking a dangerous road, but Russia's number one priority right now is winning the war in Ukraine, and this is a war about supply lines, and so he needs his ammunition. So he's turning to North Korea Now. When Putin actually decided to implement sanctions in the fall of 2017, this was under the Trump era. Remember this Fire and fury era when President Trump was calling Kim Jong-un a rocket man on a suicide mission? So there was a concern that there could have been a conflict. So Russia and China surprisingly implemented sanctions. But now it's no longer 2017. It's a very different world that we're living in, and there's a loose alliance relationship between Russia and China and North Korea, and Putin and Kim Jong-un's meeting is really a meeting of this unholy duel right. This is not good, as I said, but I think Putin is focused more on Russia's war on Ukraine, so he needs help from North Korea, and North Korea has a large stockpile of munitions.
Dana Lewis :What does this marriage of despots bring us?
Sue Mi Terry:Well, it threatens the region further. This will help Russia's war efforts in Ukraine, so that makes that situation more dangerous. It will help modernize and expand North Korea's nuclear weapons program, which will make North Korea more dangerous to the region, to South Korea, to Japan and to the rest of the world. So this is again not from US's perspective and West's perspective. This is very concerning development.
Dana Lewis :You believe that Russia and North Korea sought the blessing of China for this. If you want to call it an unholy alliance, but it's an alliance nonetheless.
Sue Mi Terry:It's interesting how much China knows and how much China will approve of this. I think it's complicated and China is a wild card here. North Korea traditionally has always played China and Russia off one another I remember going back to Sino-Soviet rivalry and by relying on Russia it will reduce North Korea's dependence on China, which China will not like. So I think China is going to look at this whole situation with a little bit of weary eye, so we'll see how Beijing responds, but it's a little bit complicated from China's perspective.
Dana Lewis :It's a little bit complicated from Washington's perspective too. I mean, here you have the spokesman yesterday wagging his finger at Russia, saying in North Korea saying that they better not start trading in weapons and that there will be consequences. I mean, they have been putting a tighter hold on the throat of North Korea for several decades and the nuclear program has just gone ahead regardless.
Sue Mi Terry:Absolutely. Jake Sullivan, national Security Advisor, said there was a price, that was going to be a price to pay, but in reality, what price? Both countries are already very isolated in terms of sanctioning North Korea. For sanctions to be effective, china and Russia have to implement sanctions, and they have not been doing that in recent years. So what more can we do to North Korea? The talks between Washington and Pyongyang have completely broken down. There's a complete impasse between Washington and Pyongyang, so I'm not sure what price. North Korea conducted 80 tests last year missile tests or in violation of United Nations Security Council resolutions. Did United Nations Security Council respond in any way? China, russia and UNSC could not even come up with a condemnation of these launches. So again, price to pay? I don't know what price. There's not a whole lot of options here in terms of pressuring North Korea.
Dana Lewis :What are the options? If you say there's not very many, are there any and what would they be?
Sue Mi Terry:The options are what the Biden administration is already doing, which is to strengthen territorial relationship between United States, south Korea and Japan to make sure that we're all on the same page in responding to future North Korean provocations. President Biden did host President Yoon-Sang-Yoon of South Korea and Prime Minister Kishida of Japan at Camp David. Thankfully, korea and Japan relationship has improved. Now that we're going to do trilateral military exercises, there's going to be a greater information intelligence sharing. So in terms of trying to stop this meeting and stop this trade, I think that's very difficult to do at this moment.
Dana Lewis :Last question to you your impressions of Kim Jong-un, who was largely silent during the pandemic, disappeared for months at a time. What do you think is happening to him? With him in North Korea?
Sue Mi Terry:Well, kim is rapidly expanding his WMD program, but internally, the economic situation is quite dire. North Korea was the first country to close the border with China at the beginning of COVID pandemic in January 2020. So the economic situation is dire in the sense that that border closure had more of an impact in North Korea's economy than sanctions ever could. So there is an internal situation that's bad in terms of food shortages and malnutrition and so on. Then, of course, he's still focusing all on expanding his WMD program. So we'll see. I think this is why Kim Jong-un is making this trip to Russia. He's looking for fuel, food aid from Russia, as well as technology transfer to expand his WMD program.
Dana Lewis :To me, terry. It's great for you to share your thoughts and thank you so much. I appreciate your time.
Sue Mi Terry:Thank you for having me on.
Dana Lewis :Robert English is an American academic, author, historian and international relations scholar who specializes in Eastern Europe, and particularly in the former USSR and Russia. His official title he's an associate professor of international foreign policy and defense analysis at the University of Southern California School of International Relations. With that out of the way, welcome, robert. Good to meet you. Thank you, nice to be here. What is Russia doing? This will play later, but as we speak, the Kim Jong-un is in Vladivostok. He's gotten off his armored train and he's going to be meeting with President Putin. What are they doing?
Robert English:They are the leaders of what we might say two pariah states that are extraordinarily at odds with the West right now, who have found our finding common ground, not just because the enemy of my enemy is my friend although that's part of it but because they have very compatible economic and technological needs and it looks like they're going to do a deal how expansive we don't know, but the outlines have been described in all the news media. Right, North Korea has these large stockpiles of good old fashioned artillery shells and unguided rockets, you know, for multiple launch rocket systems that the Russians could very well use in Ukraine. Their supplies are running low and of course, Russia has a lot of things that North Korea needs, from basic food stuffs to missile and submarine technology. So some kind of deals are in the offing, and how extensive they are and how broadly they're going to violate sanctions, that's going to be interesting to follow.
Dana Lewis :Yeah, and some of the numbers are staggering. I mean because Russia up until this point if people have any understanding what's going on in the frontline of Ukraine had fired about a million and a half to a million point seven artillery shells. They were trying to ratchet up their military industrial complex to deliver like two and a half million. Now they're saying they could in the coming year hope to fire seven million rounds of artillery. I mean, that's how grinding bloody that frontline conflict is In North Korea doesn't have anything really high tech for them or cutting edge, but they do, since the 1950s, have these huge stockpiles. Yeah.
Robert English:And they built their arms production, they built their army basically on Soviet models. So guess what? The caliber is exactly right. The charge is fit. They're not high tech guided projectiles. This is good old fashioned, essentially World War II, 1950s technology. But for the kind of pounding that you accurately describe, it's just the thing. And unless Russia can double again I think I saw the same numbers as you from about 1.5. They're hoping to produce three million shells this year, but if they're going to fire twice that many, then they can't keep up. Their own reserve stockpiles are being depleted. Whatever Iran, North Korea, maybe some African countries we've heard can provide will be needed to fill that gap. Let's hope they're not all fired and the war ends before another seven million rounds are fired by Russia and an equivalent amount by the Ukrainians.
Dana Lewis :What's happened to Russia's caution? They originally were cautious of North Korea. Like everybody else. They didn't really want them to have a nuclear program. They were certainly worried about their rockets being able to set up a satellite program. What's happened to Putin? Is this just an act of desperation, or is it something more?
Robert English:I'm a little hesitant to use the word desperation only because the Ukrainian side is in a similar condition. They, of course, can't produce many shells at all. They're entirely dependent on their Western backers. We in the United States and European Union NATO countries are having big difficulty filling their stockpiles. We are, in a sense, just about as desperate in supporting our Ukrainian friends as the Russians are. Desperation isn't quite the word. Both sides are just scrambling to keep up this brutal, passive killing. That's part of it.
Robert English:But you're right to point to Putin and ask what something more fundamental has changed, not just his approach to North Korea, his regard for that regime and what Kim Jong-un represents, but his place in the world. This is one pariah state embracing another. What will follow from this is this open flouting of UN sanctions, which Russia helped craft as you know you made allusion to that Back after 2009, 2014,. 15 various rounds of sanctions that Russia backed in concert with the United States, france, other Western allies. So this kind of activity is flouting those sanctions here to four. They had been doing it quietly smaller purchases, clandestine transfers but if they embrace each other publicly and announce a deal, then they're saying heck with everyone else.
Robert English:I was going to use the vulgar term, but maybe this is for family audiences. We will just do it openly and, yes, that's crossing a line in saying we don't care. We're not going to try to get back into the West's good graces. We have no problem making common cause with another pariah state and I, like you, wonder how thoroughly that's thought through. Does Putin have no concern for at some point having sanctions relief on his own country, reestablishing technological investment ties with the West so his battered economy can recover? It is, I think you're suggesting, another fateful step down a path of total isolation for maybe decades to come. It's a very sad moment for Russia.
Dana Lewis :You've written a lot about the former Soviet Union and the USSR. Putin watched the collapse of the former Soviet Union. I'm not sure he embraced it, but he certainly later on cashed in on capitalism and of the trade that was filtered through the Kremlin. Do you have a sense of where Russia is going under Vladimir Putin? Does he have a philosophy, like you could at least say there was a philosophical branch of communism and how they saw their state and socialism. What is Putin's raison d'etre?
Robert English:I think he's ad-libbing. I think he hasn't thought through these latest ventures. Since they haven't gone as expected, he's forced to adjust. Those decisions and those policies are taking Russia down this path of isolation complete isolation, complete pariah status. What do I mean by that?
Robert English:We go back to, let's say, 2008, 2009, and the George Bush administration that announced that at some point in the future, georgia and Ukraine would be admitted to NATO. That infuriated Putin. We saw then armed clashes within Georgia turn into a Russian invasion shortly thereafter. But Putin obviously could have subdued all of Georgia and taken it if he wanted to. He didn't. That and other moves continued cooperation with the West over some things like Iran or North Korea at that time suggest that he was trying to have it both ways expand Russian influence, push back against Western influence and the NATO alliance in his perceived backyard, but keep good relations All the way up to February, march of 2022, they were still finishing the North Stream pipeline. They didn't plan to blow it up. They didn't plan to end all energy relations with Western Europe.
Robert English:This all came as an unpleasant surprise, a spillover from this quick invasion that was supposed to subdue Ukraine in a flash, instead going wrong, and now he's embroiled in a massive, bloody, brutal war filled with civilian casualties and war crimes, and that's what I mean by ad-libbing.
Robert English:I don't think he planned a year and a half ago to be dancing with Kim Jong-un and burning all these bridges with the West.
Robert English:But I don't know inside his head if he's not maybe even happy with this, maybe on some level reverting back to kind of a Brezhnev style almost Soviet Union that is in permanent hostility with the West, where he can have this propaganda right of a country under siege, where it becomes more and more like the Soviet Union that you and I knew in those last years, those last decades, is something he's unhappy with A closed country, a country of sort of police state, iron discipline, even if it's going to cost economic growth and put them on a second rate status for decades to come. Maybe he's made his peace with that and even likes the idea of being some kind of generalissimo of a police state. I can't understand him, but I don't think it was thought through and I do believe these are ad hoc decisions. And so, again, the North Korea embrace right now proceeds from necessity to get the arms he needs, but along with it he seems very comfortable with Brezhnev style Soviet relations with these odious client states.
Dana Lewis :So can I just explore that with you for a moment, because you've written about it and maybe you could explain it and I understand we don't have that much time to go through it, but we have some time and you wrote about the old way of thinking in the former Soviet Union and then that there was an intellectual sort of revolution under Gorbachev. If Putin is adopting the old way of thinking in the former Soviet Union, can you give me some clue what he's latched onto or latched back onto?
Robert English:Well, as for an ideological anchor, he's thrashing around. He himself was a product of that Soviet KGB Cold War hostility with the West mentality, but that was of course based on Marxism-Leninism and he doesn't believe that they chose Jung At the same time. He has more recently voiced this kind of messianic Russian nationalism, the Alexander Dugan, the Eurasianism. I don't think he believes that either. He wasn't propagating that just a few years ago. I think a lot of that is for his domestic audience to justify Ukraine. So I don't think he has an ideological anchor. He doesn't deeply believe in Russian history or those kinds of anti-Western philosophers. He certainly doesn't believe in Marxism-Leninism.
Robert English:What does that leave us with? He believes in a strong Russian state standing up to the West, refusing to become part of the liberal American-led world order just for the sake of refusing. Russia has to be unequal. Russia has to have its own backyard, its own Monroe doctrine. It must never be second-rate in any alliance or international organization. And so it's better to add lib with this anti-Western confrontation, add back in control over these territories where there are Russian populations, where he can make some kind of historic claim.
Robert English:Catherine the Great built up the Crimea and behind that wall and it will be an iron curtain of sorts. He will be satisfied, even though any economist left if he has any left who are Western looking will tell him that's his path of steady degradation. And we don't even have to look much further than out our windows to see what climate change will do to Petro-states or his perceived economic base based on selling oil and gas and maybe some coal minerals. Well, of course, dwindle. If we're still pumping as much oil and gas in 10 years as we are now, then we're all fried. So it's a wasting asset. But he's not looking out 10 years. I don't believe it's. Again, I come back to this he's ad-libbing. It's an ad hoc set of decisions and he's grabbing at pieces of history or philosophy to justify it in this sort of incoherent fashion.
Dana Lewis :He's grabbing at it, but I mean a lot of people would say that during the pandemic, I mean he immersed himself, he was surrounded by the Kremlin. Historian, I think. And some people wonder you know Putin never, you're right, he never had these big visions of restoring the empire and reclaiming Russian lands. He expressed some sorrow at the breakup of the Soviet Union and that there was a human catastrophe. As many as Russian slavs were left in Kazakhstan, uzbekistan, ukraine, elsewhere. But he didn't have that. What are the chances? There's been a kind of I mean, a lot of people see him as the dawn of a crime family. Do you think that some of those members of the family of his inner circle? There's been kind of a coup during the Kremlin. The hardliners have come to power, people like Petrashiv, and that Putin is really not steering the ship at all.
Robert English:I can't answer about that. This is now pure speculation, as is, I suppose, the sort of long distance cycle analysis we're performing, trying to understand how much of this was a gradual evolution on his part. Maybe during COVID, that isolation, he did start believing or embracing some of this, but it's still not a deeply held, lifelong commitment. I don't know how to answer. I like to come back I'll try to tell this story quickly and you'll understand it to an anecdote that Russians tell that to me sums up what really motivates Putin. You remember, back in the early 2000s there was the debate not only about bringing back the old Soviet anthem, but they actually considered bringing back the red flag. They have the tricolor, but indeed they did decide to bring back the old Soviet anthem. So the joke goes like this An aide to Putin says Vladimir Vladimirovich, we have a proposal from a capitalist country for $10 billion.
Robert English:They want to give us $10 billion, absolutely $10 billion. That's right. They only have one small request yes, what do they want in return for $10 billion? They want us to embrace the red flag, go back to that red flag that so many of our countrymen want anyway. Is that all they want for $10 billion? They want us to do something we might do anyway. Well, yes, and one more little stipulation. What's that Down in the corner of that flag drink Coca-Cola, hmm, says Putin. $10 billion. Tell me, when does our contract with AquaFresh expire? We know the tricolor toothpaste. What's the point of that joke? He doesn't believe in anything except money, or let's say, money and power. All these nationalists were saying we must go back to the glory of the Stalin era or the czarist symbolism of this. What was he thinking about? Which one will profit me more? That's certainly how most of us analysts in Russia, in the West Kremlin watchers, regarded Putin and his true motivations for a long time.
Dana Lewis :Although a lot of people would say in recent history, it tells you he certainly got the power part because it's isolated, the country, he's controlled the country, he's cut off Russia and he's all they have now. But in terms of money, billions of dollars, hundreds of billions of dollars are lost.
Robert English:He and his top oligarchs, of course are fabulously wealthy because they can still skim off enormous petrol profits, but of course the country at large is becoming more and more impoverished. But the point of that joke is just that for a long time, in coming to power and in ruling for the first decade at least, he didn't seem to have strong philosophical principled beliefs. It was about power. It was about his own power and the power of Russia. It didn't go much beyond that and at that time it still meant decent economic relations with the West. They wanted to sell gas to Western Europe highly equitable. They needed foreign investment in their not just petroleum industry, but automobiles, aircraft and much else. So of course, power maximizing, power maximizing economic gain meant a certain level of economic good relations with the West. And again, the history of the North Korean pipeline and all the money and effort the Russians invested into that right up to the spring of 2022 suggests that that was a surprise. They somehow thought the war would be quick. They'd still be selling gas to Western Europe that the Western Europeans would accept. A quick and clean victory, at least in conquest of half of Ukraine. Who knows what would have come remove Zelensky, put in a puppet regime, but clearly he planned for something quick that would not upset all of these relations, political and economic with the West.
Robert English:Militarily it was a disaster. Maybe politically it wasn't well thought out either. But it's actually interesting for us to speculate. What would our German friends and our Italian and French allies Macron, angela Merkel at the time and, who knows, in Italy have done in the event of a quick and clean Russian victory? Maybe they would have made their peace with it, nato wouldn't have had time to react and those business interests in Germany would have said you know, we can deal with this. It didn't work out that way, so we're improvising too. But certainly Putin. If he's found a heartfelt ideology I don't know how heartfelt it can be over a couple of years. I still look forward to the psycho historians who have all the records, all the archives, all the interviews a decade hence, maybe 20 years hence, post Putin, to fill us in on just what happened to him in those recent years. I'm still not convinced by any one version. So I'm very dubious about taking any of Putin's philosophical pronouncements seriously.
Dana Lewis :I'm deeply disappointed, robert, because I don't have the answers either, and I thought you would have them all today. But anyway, you have great questions, better than mine, and I appreciate your time. It's great to meet you. Thank you so much.
Robert English:You're quite welcome. This was a pleasure. Maybe we'll talk again soon.
Dana Lewis :Thanks for listening to Backstory. I'm Dana Lewis and I'll talk to you again soon.
