On this Back Story with Dana Lewis we speak to former Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov about the future of Russia and political repressions under President Putin.
As we did the interview Kasyanov's political party had just received notice it had to stop all activity before the upcoming elections in Russia.
On this Back Story with Dana Lewis we speak to former Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov about the future of Russia and political repressions under President Putin.
As we did the interview Kasyanov's political party had just received notice it had to stop all activity before the upcoming elections in Russia.
This is my first overseas trip is present United States. I'm heading to the[inaudible] then to the NATO ministerial, and then to meet with Mr. Putin to let him know what I want him to know.[inaudible] At every point along the way, we're going to make it clear that the United States has back and democracies of the world are standing together to tackle the toughest challenges and the issues that matter most to our future.
Speaker 2:Hi everyone. And welcome to another edition of backstory. I'm Dana Lewis. Russia has tested the west on every level it's interfered in us democracy. It's hacked computer systems, including government systems. It's threatened us with nuclear weapons and deployed nerve agents at home and abroad. President Putin has abandoned. Most trappings of modern democracy arrested his political opposition, intimidated others. Russia is spinning backwards, many say, and no one knows it better than former prime minister of Russia, Mikhail Cassiana who once served in Putin's government and then tried to run against Putin for president on backstory and exclusive interview with Cassiana as this week, us president Biden met with NATO and then Putin himself in a formal Russia, us summit in Europe.
Speaker 3:All right, joining us now from Moscow or just outside of Moscow is former prime minister of Russia. Mikhail Cassiana. Hello, sir. Hello. Hello. Good to see you. I hear that you, um, in, in the running of your political party, uh, have just received a notice from the Russian government, which says what,
Speaker 4:Uh, that our state registrational political party has been the frozen for three months, executive the period, what is we call a parliamentary elections?
Speaker 3:So what does that mean? They have essentially either arrested or attempted to assassinate forcibly closed offices of any political organization in Russia. And you've obviously been given a warning cease all political activity before the parliamentary elections or else.
Speaker 4:Yeah, exactly. Executive paths and our Congress party, the party Congress in March, we discussed this in Lance and we called for opposition just to be United. And unfortunately, after that, as you just mentioned, some people will put in jail. Some people just go outside or exile and some people just on the, on the home arrest, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. And we finally got the notice from the government that our state registration has been frozen. It means we have no rights to participate in elections. There's I would say that KGB, a strategy to eliminate any risks, even minimal.
Speaker 3:What are they worried about? Putin says he's so popular and they say that they are still going to win the Duma elections. Even if there are opposition parties. I mean, what are they so worried about?
Speaker 4:There's no logic to explain that that's simply the, I would say instructional sort of mentality. If there is any areas that should be eliminated, if it doesn't create any real danger,
Speaker 3:They locked up Alexei Navalny who, you know, well, right. Um, they've outlawed his political party as being extremist. I mean, as putting it on parallels with Al Qaeda or ISIS, um, this is unheard of, Putin's been in power 21 years. I mean, he's never allowed a real opposition to breathe and to, to really emerge, but this takes it to a very different level. Doesn't it? What's happening
Speaker 4:There. Yeah. I think just date simply afraid of any, any, any, I would say activity because just economics recreation is worsening every year, every month and inflation this year is to grow rapidly. And the, of course they feel that, uh, uh, general audience population just, uh, angry on, uh, on, uh, authorities. And, uh, even when, before they, uh, ask him questions, just couldn't find the answers. Now, just the people can't find the answer. Authorities in particular are responsible for all the problems we have with pumping a lot of oil when the pump, a lot of financial gas, a lot of revenue or the international reserves, uh, but a huge budget resource, but people, the level of the level of pool people just growing considerably, it's more than 20 million people already under the level of a normal life who
Speaker 3:Is running things in Russia, because I mean, there have been political advisers around Putin and there've been security advisors and the security services around Booton known as the solar Vicky. I apologize for my pronunciation. Um, has there been a shift now inside the Kremlin, do you think where the KGB, the FSB is really running the show?
Speaker 4:I wouldn't say they're running the show, but I've, uh, I definitely can consume that during the last few years, the influence of, uh, as you're correct dimension syllabi key is growing. And, uh, as we have just discussed with you, that minimum risks for participating in elections was eliminated. That is the, that is the point is you have feature of the policy of KGB solid. No reason should be not even even a minimum risk. It should be eliminated. It's a confirming this feeling. I am sure that my feeling is right and not only mine, that's a syllabi key here having a growing influence on president poacher and a decision-making process. Uh, the, the inner circle is narrow down and just everything goes on this direction, just pressing, pressing, pressing, just eliminate all freedoms, join in at any risk
Speaker 3:Mikhail cast you on, uh, Russia was supposed to be democracy. It emerged from the Soviet union with the constitution. Do you believe now that Putin can simply change the constitution, extending his term till 2036 arrest, um, threaten possibly murder political opposition figures, and that that will be accepted by Russians? Or is this a, a fuse that has been lit because a lot of Russians now do not recognize, uh, Putin as a legitimate authority now?
Speaker 4:Uh, yes. Uh, right now we kind of call justice, Russia, any kind of democratic state. There is no single feature of democracy right now. They're simply authoritarian states and, uh, people living around and just the state, they didn't elect the state. This is system of, of, of, of running. And just Mr.[inaudible] mentioned with his in a, so-called just grab the power for a long period of time. Uh, I'd like to believe that forever. And, uh, and of course, and of course, uh, uh, surprising developments, not only for me, but for many, many people, it's surprising that rational people keep patients for so many years. We had demonstrations in the streets we wanted them did. We do Monday from pizza sorority just to respect our constitutional rights. And the rich people got Russia jail, just beating people on the streets and the people in jail for, for many years, et cetera. And, uh, people continue to keep patients. That is the question, rhetorical question, how long people would keep these patients, um, how long does this authority will go through this spot? Of course it depends not only on a negative development inside country. I mean, I'm going to can social development beaches, um, that would say, uh, continue to, to, to, uh, grading pressure and not, not only emotional pressure, but real income problems for people. People cannot, cannot keep the same level of their life and they uploaded them, but also developed at also that also depends on international attitude too. And I believe just upcoming upcoming meeting with the president Biden and Geneva, of course. Uh, we'll also demonstrate just, I would say the readiness of the whole west, the west, a readiness to stay on their values. It means not coming to the agreement on human rights violations and a lot of these to put into continue, but saying just a very clear, no for these repressions and for, for these violations of human rights. But of course there would be some issues for, I would say, I wouldn't say cooperation about some kind for interaction and resolving international problems. That is a separate issue,
Speaker 3:Right? This is the, the so-called multilateral issues where they'll talk about humanitarian assistance in Syria or global warming. Uh, you know, Biden says that he wants a stable, predictable relationship with Russia. Do you think that that's wishful thinking given president Putin's intentions?
Speaker 4:Uh, it means it depends what we mean predictable, if predictable, in terms of international security, of course it is possible, uh, in terms of strategic, strategic balance and, uh, keeping, uh, non-promotional non-proliferation regime and secure that that's absolutely necessary, but other issues like regional conflict, of course, it's difficult to come to solution. You mentioned Syria. I don't think it's possible to come to the solution there. Uh, uh, the president Assad together with Mr. Portland and around the country devastated Syria, Syria, and now just humanitarian assistance, only humanitarian, but it's not, uh, rebuilding just of, of the country. That's is absolutely absolutely serious question. Are there regional conflicts? That's that's also probably the Ukraine, the most sensitive issue. I don't think it's possible. So to find the compromise there, uh, that could be, of course they could be talks. There could be some kind of exchange of arguments, but I don't think there will be, there will be a solution because foremost the potent it's necessary to keep the affair. But of course, I difficult to imagine for me that the west, I mean, you need to turn it a little west. Uh, what's uh, what's a compromise somehow on, um, on the Ukrainian total integrity using
Speaker 3:Your brain as a pressure point with America,
Speaker 4:Uh, are you grant that's, that's an important point, but it's an important point for the hallways and that Europe in particular at the testing point, but testing point, whether the west is prepared to stay on the, on the, on the principles, which they do, uh, and then announce every country and the, uh, respecting those principles, all those leaders will collect. If they will stop respecting those principles and they will never be elected again. And this is a completely, completely democratic the democratic system in each of those companies.[inaudible] that same
Speaker 3:A test of what though? I mean, Ukraine is not a member of NATO. It's just a, it's a, it's a test in terms of respecting post-Soviet borders and boundaries.
Speaker 4:Ukraine, Ukraine wants to be a member of European union. Your brain wants to be a member of nectar and the Ukraine's wants, uh, to keep the, the, the territorial integrity of beaches was recognized after the second world war and after collapse of Soviet union. That is one going on of one another, that is upset, upset with the clear just on the whole world would like this, not, not new, not new. I would say the changes of what there's not a new, new cutting. There's a substitute the whole European security based on that. There's this OEC OEC, uh, uh, chapter, just, just the main, the main basis for European security.
Speaker 3:No, that Putin accuses the west of lighting, a fire in Ukraine, and he, he blames the west for any unrest in Ukraine. And he pretends to be a moderator, uh, immediate, uh, w with the areas of Eastern Ukraine. Like Donette's, what is the reality?
Speaker 4:That is that, that's why I'm saying I'm answering your question, that I cannot, I cannot believe they will be the compromise files during that meeting, or just follow up meetings, because just as I said, that there's completely different positions of Mr. Putin and the whole wall. And, uh, I think, uh, you know, just that, that the, the problem of, uh, of, uh, Eastern Ukraine or problem of, um, uh, uh, annexation of Crimea was not recognized for any, uh, symbol posting good countries in the world, even recognized annexation of Crimea. That's. That means just that there's the way I would say the freestyle position on that.
Speaker 3:As we speak, president Biden is sitting around a table with NATO countries. And as you know, a lot of those NATO countries are, they include the Baltics, Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia, and their leaders, uh, see Putin as a major threat, even Poland, uh, believing that is expansionist, that he wants to, um, that he wants to create turmoil on his borders, just not in Ukraine, uh, just not, uh, in his, in his relationship with Belarus and president Lucas Shanko. Uh, but in the end, he aims to upsets any stability within NATO countries as well. Do you think that they overstate the dangerous?
Speaker 4:Um, no. They have the reason they have reasons to be afraid of that. And, uh, that's absurdity, that's both estates their war fighter and not long ago, just bottled for Soviet union now understand they understand, uh, uh, in the circle. Um, and that's why they have reasons for that. And they understand that it's not only for them. It's clear that you grant that as the sensitive point, if west would come to some kind of compromise, compromise. So are you granule, serenity and territorial integrity? Of course, that will be multiplied reasons. We'll do multiplied form the grading dangerous for both states in particular. That's why early this, all those countries just they saw. So I would say continue to insist of strong position on that. I can easily understand those Baltic states and Poland, uh, just what they're afraid of.
Speaker 3:Do you think that Putin has changed? We've we've been watching him for 21 years. You were his prime minister early on
Speaker 4:The different potent at that time, that was 20 years ago. That was upstairs at a different potent. At that time, we can support a democratic reforms, um, uh, reforms in economy. And that's that time just, we have like a mommy gross of 7%. Then we have, uh, there were a few cases of violation of given the rise for some kinds of mistakes, but on the latest stage, of course, now we see completely different. And at that time, the most broad democratic poutine, and remember, we have excellent relations with the European union and the United States, and now just called the west as our enemies. And they were, that will immediately has been changed during the last 15 meters. That is completely two completely different ways. That two completely different places. That's why I am in the position because I cannot accept any feature of this police and Mr. Putin stuff starting with 2008, 2007, 2008. When, when w when he just, um, pronounced his speech in non-conference conference. And then next year, and 2008, there was a boy in Georgia. And then as a result of not, uh, appropriate, appropriate[inaudible] behavior and Georgia, we got an extension of creamy and the war in Eastern Ukraine, that is, that is everything has ever come there.
Speaker 3:When you mentioned the Munich speech, was that the speech where he talked about the collapse of the Soviet union, being one of the biggest tragedies of the last century
Speaker 4:At that time, he won the west, that he wants his regime to be recognized as the decent one. And he wanted to meet the at night so that, uh, not to, not to press him on the human rights violations, et cetera. It wasn't that time. You remember so-called Soviet and democracy. And that was his understanding of what democracy in restaurants should be at, and that his interpretation of human rights and other features of democratic state and the west was didn't take it seriously. And next year, I jumped on that NATO summit, Georgia, and the grant was denied to get the wrong map for, for, for NATO future potential future entering. And that was a signal for me. We can just immediately stop racing. Just he understood that the west is not prepared to tackle the problems, uh, that time, if you
Speaker 3:Say, the west is not dealt with properly, didn't take his threat. Seriously. Didn't really push and press and corner of Russia in the past, the way they should have, what should they do now? There are economic sanctions in place, over Crimea and the Ukraine. There's been a lot of calls by people like bill Browder to make them much tougher to go after his inner circle. Um, what, what is the answer?
Speaker 4:Uh, I think the house is very clear. Continue to believe that, uh, the, I mean, for the Western leaders continue to believe that, uh, you're absolutely correct. And respecting, respecting democratic features. So all your countries and including labor countries like Ukraine and Russia, including, and that's Russia, Russia is a member of OAC and Russia is a member of council of Europe and Russia, uh, must respect all those obligations. And of course the, our partners, the west, oh, I'm the old, old agreements they should tell to us, to Russia to put on surgery that is inappropriate behavior
Speaker 3:Just announced. They've announced. So many of the things that he's done, including the jailing of Nevada, the attempted poisoning and the valley, the deployment of no. What? Okay. So you tell him then had
Speaker 4:Mr. Putin once, once finally, that the west will be tied to a bed and come to compromise. That's what I'm saying. Continue to believe that Russia could be a normal country just as this regime is temporal. And Mr.[inaudible] have problems with now just, uh, with the economy. And there is no single reform right now. And, uh, uh, with a widow, even with the very good type prices, high prices, and then initial markets, rational economy walk appropriately because just that's, that is because of, um, uh, Putin's regime because of political pressure, but political squeezing of everything, unchangeable government on all levels. And it goes off huge corruption and because of accountability to any economic and social reforms, that means just the regime is on the, on the dire straits. That's why, that's why, that's why, uh, uh, there is no, uh, no need to support to support and pull out. Well, let Mr.[inaudible] out of the problems he, uh, brought the country,
Speaker 3:The international community should hold the line. You don't necessarily call for tighter sanctions. You say, hold the line with existing sanctions and that will accomplish what in the end.
Speaker 4:Yeah. Uh, we all have, uh, just a list of Ms. Disease and all necessarily reactions, which west emulated, all those reactions already given done. If other Ms. Ms. Disappear that is for Western leaders to consider, uh, I cannot, I cannot prescribe just what should be done, but I'm just simply observing, uh, observing what's going on. And of course, I'm standing on the, on the democratic principles and believe my country soon will be again, democratic state. And they went better than before. But, uh, of course I'd like, I'd like my people, people of my country would realize what's going on. And that's, uh, that's the Western leaders, the west, uh, have no, you'll do all. I would say standards if they eat the west announced, we want Russia to be democratic state and by constitution, even by these, uh, changed constitutional, uh, I would say Wilson constitution, the major aspects of democratic states still are written there. Uh, but authority, uh, authorities don't respect them at all.
Speaker 3:You say that you have hoped for democracy in Russia, and that you're hoping that soon Russia would become democratic. Again, it seems like you are slipping further and further away from at least the nineties when there was a brief flirtation with a real democracy.
Speaker 4:Of course I am, um, could be, could be, could be seen as a dreamer. Um, but, uh, unfortunately today as we stop it, during the beginning of our discussion, we lost, I mean, the democratic movements in Russia lost the momentum of pricing authorities and bring them to changes. And that's why we are in the dark periods. That's correct. That's at that period. And that's why my, um, I will say, uh, explanation of future changes. Uh, it looks like, uh, like upstairs, upstairs with a dream, but I'm sure that, uh, not tomorrow, but soon changes will come changes.
Speaker 3:You think changes are inevitable because the tougher the authorities get on Russian people, the greater the chance that people will not stand for it anymore.
Speaker 4:Uh, Russia's Russia's restaurant people, I would say, uh, randomization or recognition of, of everything was going on is maturing. And people coming to the, to the, to the right understanding who is, where is the source of provenance who is responsible for it's for internal and for external. But if west stay without compromises with this regime, it means just the sedation stay as it is, but it's not stay as it is with the same, uh, circumstances with same conditions, but the regime would start weakening how rapidly, how rapidly, okay, how rapidly, how rapidly, um, uh, we, we have, so-called just, uh, elections, that's absolute limitations, which, where we always had the annotations of elections, but this will be[inaudible]. And that will be another feature for people to take a note. And then we have just elections in 44, uh, and that during this period of time, just peoples the people surreal income and the style of life, and the whole atmosphere was very rapidly. And it was a moron, especially for middle class, living in big cities. People simply hate everything was going around. They, uh, they just in a, not a situation, but they afraid to go to the streets to protect the constitutional rights on the streets by demonstration, but, uh, sooner or later, uh, wide the wide, the part of population, bigger part of population, not necessarily educated people in the big cities would also come to the conclusion. They, they leave on the, the level of poverty, as I said, just very high, right. It's continued to increase, and that will be a maturing of, uh, of, uh, negative attitude. And the, and again, as I said, just there is no support from outside economics association would, would, would come tracks, uh, will, will, will decrease just somewhere where it means changes could be in one year time would be in half a year time, or could it be a three-year, but that's what the horizontal which I described from, from today's understanding of the audit.
Speaker 3:Last question to you, I was shocked by a poll that Luvata just did recently on how many people in different age groups in Russia want to leave the country.
Speaker 4:That's exactly confirming what they have just said. You'll notice the 48% of young people up to 25 years, half of young people would like to depart from Russia because they don't see a future for themselves. That is shocking by any your 5% of the most productive population, like 25 up to 40 years old, each, each of us thought just the sort of, uh, of this, of this part of population would like to depart because people understand that the repressions are going and, uh, any attempt to protect your rights, your rights just facing, facing big problems. And that's why people just simply cannot, cannot, cannot fight with they are not prepared to fight with this machine that is disaster.
Speaker 3:And unfortunately hope is fading for a lot of people that there's going to be change sooner than later and peaceful change. And because hold by Putin and the Kremlin on society just seems never ending.
Speaker 4:It could be that. I said, just wait. It's just other, other sector of population. Other population would stop what stopped fighting for their rights, but not even for their rights for their lives. Uh, that, that is, uh, that's coming to more dangerous development. That's you're wanting is absolutely correct. I agree on share your concerns on that. Unfortunately, authorities don't want to understand what's going on in the country and where we're heading. So unfortunately they just like closing eyes and be going tunnel and, uh, um, let us unfortunately development. And that is what, as you mentioned in one of the center since eligible pulse, just demonstrating, just demonstrating what people's, what, what people's feeling. I've always a pleasure to talk to you. Thank you so much. Thank you very much for those apps. That'd be great. Thank you.
Speaker 2:The size, the number of young Russians who would like to move out of their home country has soared to a 10 year high, according to an independent Levada center poll. According to Luvata's latest results, 53% of Russian respondents aged 18 to 24 would like to immigrant this marks a 16% increase in five months, and is the highest share of respondents since 2009. That tells you a lot about the economy in Russia, about opportunity and about attitudes towards Putin and his political repression. Please subscribe to this podcast and sheriff. We are now in our third season in growth. I'm Dana Lewis. Thanks for listening to backstory. And I'll talk to you again soon.
Speaker 5:[inaudible].