On this Back Story Iran.
President Biden is attempting to bring Iran back to allow IAEA inspections of nuclear sites, with a view to lifting sanctions if Iran abandons nuclear weapons development.
It's a long story which evolves year by year, and Iran becomes more, not less dangerous.
In this Back Story the upcoming Presidential election in Iran will bring a hardliner to power. And should the West pursue harder sanctions, to tip the balance and spark regime change?
We speak to Shahin Gobadi is a member of Foreign Affairs Committee of the National Council of Resistance of Iran, on increasing nuclear dangers,
And Ali Safavi who is also with the resistance group, on the new Presidential election and what it may mean.
On this Back Story Iran.
President Biden is attempting to bring Iran back to allow IAEA inspections of nuclear sites, with a view to lifting sanctions if Iran abandons nuclear weapons development.
It's a long story which evolves year by year, and Iran becomes more, not less dangerous.
In this Back Story the upcoming Presidential election in Iran will bring a hardliner to power. And should the West pursue harder sanctions, to tip the balance and spark regime change?
We speak to Shahin Gobadi is a member of Foreign Affairs Committee of the National Council of Resistance of Iran, on increasing nuclear dangers,
And Ali Safavi who is also with the resistance group, on the new Presidential election and what it may mean.
We need transparency and communication to minimize the risk of strategic misunderstanding, our mistakes. We must also address Iran's destabilizing activities across the middle east, and we're going to work in close cooperation with our European and other partners. As we proceed. We'll also work together to lock down freestyle and radiologic material to prevent terrorist groups from acquiring to using them.
Speaker 2:Hi everyone. And welcome to another edition of backstory. I'm Dana Lewis, president Biden made that statement earlier this year. And since then, negotiations with Iran have continued the talk seek to revive a landmark pact under which he ran agreed to curb its nuclear program in return for the lifting of international sanctions. But Izzy run really in the mood to give up its nuclear weapons development, and it's America making a mistake. He and its strategy to engage the regime instead of further isolating it to set conditions for the regime to collapse, which is you're about to hear, could be closer than we think.
Speaker 3:Joining me now from Paris is Shaheen go body, who is a member of the foreign affairs committee of the national council of resistance of Iran, uh, a parliament, if you will, an exile of the Uranian resistance and all also Allie[inaudible], uh, who is also with the resistance group. Welcome to you both.
Speaker 4:Thank you. Thank you very much. I can start
Speaker 3:With the news of the day. Russia now is said to supply Iran with advanced satellite systems, boosting tea runs, military capability officials say, and here's, here's what the satellite that the Russians will launch for Iran will look at. Uh, they'll have the ability to survey the whole region. Continuous monitoring of facilities, facilities ranging from Gulf oil refineries, Israeli military basis, Iraqi, uh, barracks that how's us troops, uh, and the launch could happen within months. Can I get your reaction to that? Well, basically
Speaker 4:It's no secret to no one that acquiring advanced ballistic missiles and emphasizing on this and using a big portion of in people's CA uh, capital and wealth in this kind of behavior is no surprise to anyone who has followed it in the first,
Speaker 3:How dangerous is that they suddenly will have this eye in the sky if you will.
Speaker 4:Well, so far as this regime is concerned, I think all of these assets are dangerous, but one has to look at the fact that this is also a sign of this, that this regime is basically looking more and more for belligerence and intransigence as a way to compensate for the big, big problems inside Iran. And particularly vis-a-vis the meaning people from the first days that this regime came to pub back in 1979, onward, this regime has survived on two pillars, basically repression at home, an export of belligerence and Islamic fundamentalism abroad. And this has been two very well known characteristics of this regime. So to that effect, this doesn't surprise me at all that you are, despite all the problems with the economy, despite all the difficulties that you've been in people face making their ends meet on a day to day, the regime is, uh, spending so much in this kind of a nefarious activities. It's comes as no surprise to
Speaker 3:Me. Nuclear program, uh, run is ramping up its nuclear activities. Is there any question about that?
Speaker 4:Not at all. As I said again, this very much falls in the same category that I just explained for more than three decades. This regime has spent billions and billions and billions of dollars for this, uh, vicious, uh, a nuclear weapons program, which by all means is a drive to acquire nuclear weapons. There's no doubt in anyone's mind that the ultimate objective of the regime is to obtain nuclear weapons as a guarantor for survival and no matter, uh, of this, uh, you know, negotiations and deals that made and so on and so forth. This problem has never stopped. Actually they have continued. And the way this program works is very telling actually we as the movement that make the big revelations and the first simulation is about, uh, innovation secret nuclear sites can tell with full confidence that the Iranians a civilian program is basically a cover for a Iranian nuclear weapons program, which is led by the military. So you can see two basically circles concentric. The bigger one, the one that you see from outside is the civilian program. But in reality, at the core of it is a drive to acquire nuclear weapons and they didn't regime is trying to get all the necessary parts, uh, for, uh, as I said, acquire nuclear weapons. So in no period of time, in the past three decades, his program has stopped. There have been ups and downs. The regime has faced many hurdles, but as I said, the desire for nuclear weapons has never subsided and they have always been a priority for decision. All right,
Speaker 3:It seems that we are hurdling towards some point Ali in the future, uh, where Iran will have a nuclear weapon because even president Biden now is saying he wants to engage Iran. They need to call for transparency. They need to work through their European partners, uh, to try and bring around back into the nuclear agreement regime. Uh, but they, by day, week by week, month by month, there is always some news that Iran progresses with its program regarding,
Speaker 4:I guess, uh, let me preface my answer to your question with an, which I think it is important to make. And, uh, you hear these days, of course, we've been hearing this since the Biden administration, uh, came to office that because the previous administration, uh, got out of the JCPO and imposed the, the sanctions on the regime at the maximum pressure policy that, that has prompted the regime to ramp up its nuclear weapons program. I think that's an absolutely false and in some respects, a misguided narrative, because even during the JCP POA, the regime never stopped its nuclear weapons program. Its infrastructure remained intact it's experts, including the one who was killed. Most of the factories are there continued their work with his colleagues. The regime kept building new sites. It kept doing his secret testing, which we know now in some sites that it never declared to the IAEA and is yet to respond to very legitimate question that the IAA has to come and say, because, uh, we, eh, impose the sanctions on the regime regime and reneged on his commitments on the JCPO. We must not give it concessions to bring it back to the JCP. I think if the totally misguided and dangerous,
Speaker 3:I don't think, you know, is it fair to say to the president, to president Biden's administration that they're looking for concessions or they're offering Iran concessions and essentially what they're essentially what they're saying, uh, is let's start, uh, to bring you back into an agreement, uh, which would allow the IAEA to inspect sites properly to explain traces of uranium found at several undeclared sites. Um, and, and that's really the only way to deal with Iran in, in the longterm is to, to look into what they're doing underground and, and thereby, and the only way you're going to get that is to reward them with lifting sanctions.
Speaker 4:Well, the problem I have with that narrative, they know is that from our perspective, the return of the regime to the JCPO will not be the starting point. It's the end point to think that if you put the regime in the nuclear box, the regime will begin to negotiate about its malign activities in demand. This region is meddling in the internal affairs. I've never in countries, it's ballistic. Missile is egregious human rights abuses against its own citizens. I think the fallacy and case in point to JCP one, the JCP between dry I'm not in 2015, none of the malign activities on the radiant regime stopped far from it. The regime expanded all of those activities. And we, we know that now, and it's a human rights abuses look what it did to the protesters in 2017, in 2018, in 2019. So I think the problem is that the JCPO fundamentally is a, is a flawed deal. That's the problem in, in JCPO
Speaker 3:Nobody's saying sign up, nobody's saying sign up to the same JCP oh eight conditions they're saying expand the parameters of the agreement, um, make the[inaudible], uh, inspections effective. Um, and, and that includes military sites, I think at some point, because you just can't have civilian sites and not be allowed to look into military sites. Isn't that true Shaheen, because obviously it's just going to be smoke and mirrors. They're going to show sites that are not producing, uh, enriched uranium in civilian areas, but then they're going to hide those in military sites.
Speaker 4:I think you raised a very good point then actually the whole point that I think Addie was also making was that they just used the original JCP, had too many floors. It does not have all and too many loopholes. That's what like this, that it did not provide enough guarantees that they even envision strive for nuclear weapons. Will you basically, all of that would be prevented and stopped. That's the problem? The fact of the matter is the experience of the past three decades in particular, in the past two decades have proven that whenever there's toughness, there's a firmer stance, this region retreats, but whenever people think by giving them concessions by opening some gates to them, opening some doors with them, the regime will reciprocate. This has been proven to be naive. Europeans tried it, the international community tried it. It was try it again by pH time. And again, so in that sense, look, they should very simple, as I said, they should be access to every everywhere at any moment. All the previous, uh, Iranian regimes, uh, activities that pertains to possible military aspects of the nuclear weapons should be very transparent. And all of the regions previous activities should be known to the world. But the fact of matter is the regime has never been transparent. The Iranian regime is a nuclear, uh, process has always been marred with duplicity deception, misguiding line. Actually, we just did a NCRI in the report just a couple of weeks ago, and we shot case-by-case. I think 17 sites that are under question and their issue has never responded to the, and actually the four sites that the IAA is not asking questions about are the ones that became known to the IIE and the activities. Not because of the integrations, forthcoming and transparency. You know, this question like we have been following this, as I said, way in details of the network of the people as much. I do not. We run inside Iran for three decades with great risk as a patriotic duty, because if they didn't reach and get the nuclear weapons, even in people are the first victims. In addition to the region, in addition to the international
Speaker 3:Community, if I can just jump in there, I know it's, it's, it's astounding when you go back and read in month by month, what is taking place, right? But I mean, as, uh, in February we had a small amount of Uranian, uh, metal at a nuclear plant in Isfahan, which can, I understand make the core of a nuclear weapon. Then there was new maps that came out, uh, you know, in the last week, which show activities at military sites. There are, um, readings that the IAEA has picked up of, of nuclear material that they're asking you roundabout and around doesn't answer it's. So it is mind, but you say 17 sites. It is mind-boggling the size and production, uh, of their nuclear program.
Speaker 4:Exactly. And if I may just add to that, yes. If I may say what's the pattern of the Indian regime is like a hide and seek catch me if you can. So the question is why such a regime that is not abiding MP, MPT, its commitments, it's additional protocol commitments.[inaudible] why should even be talk of, you know, leasing sanctuary, you know, for anyone who deals with a child, you never revoked them for misconduct. It's common sense.
Speaker 3:You, you see regime changes. The only alternative where we're in European leaders, uh, American leaders are trying to work somehow to force the regime to give up its program. And they seem to be two very different roads.
Speaker 4:Exactly. Yes. And I think this brings me back to your original question. I think that, uh, w we do not have to assume that Iran would acquire a nuclear weapon and we must do everything in our power to prevent it from acquiring nuclear weapons. And I think given the domestic situation in Iran, given the explosive, the state of society, uh, when you look at the sham presidential election coming up, and the actions that hominy took, if anything, it is a very clear sign of the desperation that he faces. And so time is running out on the mullahs regime, quite frankly.
Speaker 3:I mean, why do you, why do you say time is running out and why do you say they're desperate?
Speaker 4:Well, several reasons, one recall that 42 years, they played the west with this narrative of moderate versus hotline. Well, in this year's election, common, a purge, not only all of the so-called moderate candidates, but even people who were part of his inner circle, somebody like Alhanati Johnny, who was the parliamentary speaker for 12 years, was the head of the state radio on television, was the secretary for the Supreme national security council who was an IRG Brigadier general. And he was even a, he's actually now the head of the headquarters that is working on the 25 year strategic, uh, uh, pact with China. But harmony did not even trust him to allow the bedding body guardian council to, uh, okay. Him to come and run. He was eliminated. And the only candidate that is really a serious one is somebody like[inaudible] the current head of the judiciary, who is by all standards and mass murderer, the guy who is 60 years old, but for since 19, the only thing that he has done has been to sign this bar on for political prisoners and that election,
Speaker 3:That election is looming. And it appears that, uh,[inaudible] is going to win it as president. Is that right? And what does that deliver? What kind of Iran does that deliver to the world?
Speaker 4:I think it, it delivers the true face of the Iranian regime. You know, we said from day one that a Viper never gives birth to adopt. Now you see the real face at the Viper. Somebody like[inaudible] who, as you know, there's not a hashtag called the mass mother racy. And if you look at the Iranian political scene today, there are like thousands of video clips, people braving arrests, and torture and showing their faces coming and saying, we're not going to vote. In fact, internal polls of the regime itself say that, uh, less than 20% will, uh, participate in this election. So this is an illegitimate election. And you have, it's like, imagine if you have Eichmann or Himmler running a country. So I think the onus is on the, on the international community, on the U S and on Europeans. Uh, are they going to shake the hand of somebody like him, who has blood dripping from his fingers of the blood of at least 30,000 political prisoners who were massacred in 1988, somebody who has been in every position of responsibility, uh, as seen people hang left and right, there are so many survivors of his atrocities. So this is the real face of the Iranian regime. And I think the fact that, right, right. He sees
Speaker 3:Right. He sees history, certainly us a lot about how he will deal, uh, internally with Iranians. What, what do you, can you say, uh, in terms of how he will deal with the world, how he'll deal with the middle east, how he'll deal with foreign governments?
Speaker 4:Well, I think, uh, the way that any regime deals with its own citizens is it reflective of how they will deal with the foreigners. After all the remaining people are not infidels, they are Shiites and look what they've done to them. Imagine what they will do to people that they call infidels. So I think that, uh, harmony has brought race into the, for precisely for what you said, uh, refreshen maximum repression, domestically, maximum interference in the internal offense of, uh, regional countries, uh, fully ahead with a nuclear weapons program. Look that easy, lots of his foreign trips, even before being becoming a candidate has been to Lebanon meeting with the Hezbollah leader, Hassan Nasrallah with some other well-known terrorists in the middle east region. And so in that sense, the foreign policy of the regime would reflect what is to be expected domestically, uh, more belligerence, more incitement to war. And of course, more defined some of the international community, how many didn't bring right in to see for him to make any concessions to the Europeans and the United States. None whatsoever. If you wanted to do that, you would have allow some so-called moderate from the other faction to run, but he cleaned up to that.
Speaker 3:She didn't go, buddy, let me ask you, I mean, I know you are not sitting isolated in Paris. You are very good at networking and talking to everybody in Europe, including the Americans. So you are telling them that Iran is taking a harder turn, um, about to become more dangerous. What kind of response do you get from the Americans?
Speaker 4:I think, um, to be honest with you, the world is still has not grasped the gravity of what's happening in Iran. These days. The big question is why, how many has come to this decision? As you said, athlete's feet did more than three decades to finish this business of, you know, moderate versus radical, uh, gambit forever. What has compelled him to come to this point? Because the regime has gained a lot from this business, particularly international arena. The reality is the answer should be fun. What's happening in the streets of Iran. Look, the number one priority for harmony and for the regime is to prevent another mass uprising. That's something that the west has not paid enough attention. I think in the last three years, the big difference within 2017 and 2021 is this, there has been three major nations uprising in Iran, and I'm talking about nationwide in the last one being November, 2019, more than 200 cities. People basically storm to the streets in huge numbers, hundreds of thousands of them calling death to harmony death, to Rohani fighting the revolutionary guards in the streets. According to the regimes on accounts at some days 900 locations, people are combating diversion dogs in the streets trying to bring the regime down. So basically the regime came to the cliff. So this is the explosive situation Iran. And one has to remember the social settings that led to people's uprising and also the activities of the network of the resistance. Namely, the Machar didn't have network has intensified. So the regime is very, very worried in particular for many that look, if another uprising happens, what happens to the regime? And that's why they brought RACI as the killer as the, uh, basically the iron fist turned to prevent the uprising. And I think this is the key factor that has to be brought in for any, uh, understanding the future course of events in Iran
Speaker 3:Equals what kind of strategy that that should equal, what kind of strategy then for the west,
Speaker 4:It should be much more, much tougher on Iran. There should be much more voice set for us about human rights, hold the regimes to account for all of these myths. Look, nobody on the resistance side has ever called for any material support from the west. This isn't even an issue. It has an Iranian problem and solution, I would say, but at the same time, the west for his own sake for his own interests should stand up on the side of Ukrainians and the desire for change in democracy. We much more voice set for us on human rights. Hold the regime to account. For instance, for the 1988 massacre has never been a independent investigation on this massacre by the UN
Speaker 3:Hostages, how many Western hostages are there now held in Iran?
Speaker 4:Several. I think, you know, the Germans have the French, have the British have Americans have. So you see again, Teresa. So again, hostage taking has become the statecraft and, and it's like, uh, one of the former hostages that is like a supermarket for the regime. You buy one and they go and replenish that immediately after. So basically I think you said, what kind of policy hold the regime accountable to all of these Misty for terrorism? Look, this is a regime that is diplomat sending diplomats in Europe. What started to blow up a major meeting of the national concept of resistance of Iran in the heart of Europe in Paris back in 2018.
Speaker 3:And this was a, this was a documented court cases,
Speaker 4:Of course, and the, and the diplomat and his three accomplices, the sentence to 20 years, 17 years, 18 years, 15 years of imprisonment, they were caught with a bomb in their hand. So what I'm saying is what kind of regime uses this diplomatic apparatus to, to bomb a meeting of tens of thousands of people in more than 1000 dignitaries at the heart of Europe now who would negotiate with that, uh, regime international it's time for the west, that business as usual decision doesn't work. And you cannot count as the Maulers as your content parts,
Speaker 3:I think, can I ask you both to conclude with this? Do you think, um, that from this being passed from one American administration to another, uh, that, that, uh, that time has run out and that they are so close to obtaining a weapon and that it is becoming so critical. What is taking place in terms of the short amount of the fuse is getting pretty short that the Biden president Biden is going to be the one that has to deal with this, or is going to let it slip through his fingers. And we are going to be faced with a very dangerous situation with Iran, a more date, it's already dangerous, a more dangerous situation with possibly a nuclear armed Iran.
Speaker 4:My answer would be two prompt. One. I think some of what you hear from Iran, uh, I think is a hyperbole. I think they remain in Virginia has ways to go still to, uh, acquire nuclear weapons will become a nuclear threshold state. They are ramping up some of these to force the Biden administration and the Europeans to make the kind of concessions that they would otherwise not make that 0.1 0.2. I think the determinant factor in all of this, in this equation is this streak in Iran. And I think to the extent that people get organized, the resistance units, expanded activities, uh, I think a major uprising is a new Ming regime is official, constantly talk about that. And they say, if that comes, it will be far more ferocious and much more widely spread than the previous one. And we will likely not survive it. So, uh, I think that that, uh, one has to take very prudent steps and not take any rash, uh, measures to give the regime everything it wants just to prevent it from, uh, thinking that it will get the bomb. I don't think that's the case. This regime has a lot of problems at home. And first of all, it has an election coming up in a week and let's see what happens. I mean, we don't know if something like 2009 will occur or not, but they are very worried about it. That's my, my 2 cents. Jean,
Speaker 3:Do you agree last word to you? Do you agree with that? I mean, Allie seems to give the Biden administration a lot more breathing room than some people would think in terms of Iran's ability to put together a bomb and that, um, that the fuse is not that short.
Speaker 4:I actually concur with Allie and I would like to add the fact that look, we are here because over the years, too many concessions are made to the regime. Too much time was given to the regime. If the party, which is desperate is eight enriching. They need the vest much more than the vest needs them. Look, the economy is on the brink. You're very worried about a very disenchanted and explosive society. So they are the ones who are desperate. They are the ones who are on the rope. All the rest has to need is to basically hold the ground and trust me, the regime will have no choice, but to accommodate the vest or to be overthrown. So I think there's all this razzmatazz and all this hoopla is because they generation doesn't want the world to see the reality as it is. And I think next week we'll see that how many meanings would shun the regimes ballot boxes, which for years, the regime purported as the source of legitimacy. So the last one is Iran is changing. It's changing fast. The policies should change accordingly. And I think that's, there's another watch, which is taking very quickly. And that is the watch of the change inside Iran.
Speaker 3:You're saying, hold the line. Don't give ground, keep the economic sanctions where they are and grassroots uprising in Iran, which is the best way to achieve regime change will come about naturally Shaheen go body and Alice Favi. Thank you so much to both of you.
Speaker 4:Thank you, Dana. Thank you very much. Thank you. And that's our
Speaker 2:Backstory on Iran. You can see the video of this interview on my YouTube channel and also sign up for free to our newsletter. Dana Lewis dot sub stack.com. That newsletter is designed to lead you through big international news stories of the day and give you the links to the original source articles you can read for yourself. I'm Dana Lewis. Thanks for listening. And I'll talk to you again soon.