Well, there'll be no ceasefire, general ceasefire, in Gaza without the release of our hostages. As far as tactical little pauses an hour here, an hour there, we've had them before. I suppose we'll check the circumstances in order to enable goods, humanitarian goods, to come in or our hostages, individual hostages, to leave. But I don't think there's going to be a general ceasefire. It's not that I don't think. I think it will hamper the war effort. It'll hamper our effort to get our hostages out, because the only thing that works on these criminals in Hamas is the military pressure that we're exerting.
Dana Lewis :Hi everyone and welcome to another edition of Backstory. I'm Dana Lewis. As we speak, the Israeli army has surrounded Gaza City. 1,400 Israelis were slain by Hamas October the 7th. Since then, hamas has held 242 people hostages Israelis for over a month, and God knows what kind of terrible conditions. These are the elderly, children and people who should not be held and need to be released. Israel's attempt to remove Hamas from power in Gaza has resulted in as many as 10,000 deaths, say aid agencies. Many of those are also children. How does this end?
Dana Lewis :Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said that Israel has overall security responsibility for the Gaza Strip and will have it for an indefinite period. Netanyahu's first comments on Israel's plan for Gaza after the war came in an interview on ABC. However, he did not elaborate on the kind of security mechanism such a plan would involve. So we reached out to Israeli ambassador Alon Pinkas he served Israel's most senior members of government over the decades and we asked Pinkas what are the possibilities in Gaza for Israel? He is full of reflection and absolutely worth a listen. All right, alon Pinkas served as chief of staff to Shlomo Ben Ami and David Levy, the ministers of foreign affairs in Israel. He was a foreign policy advisor for Ehud Barak and political advisor to Shimon Peres, and he was also consul general of Israel to New York City. Alon, it's really an honor to be able to interview you. How are you today?
Alon Pinkas/Israeli Diplomat :It's my pleasure, dana, good to be with you. How am I? All things considered, I'm okay, but emphasize all things considered, not that I'm okay.
Dana Lewis :Have you ever seen and the answer should be two-sided have you ever seen the anger inside of Israel that we are experiencing now, after October the 7th, and the desire to do away with a barbaric enemy that will attack again, no doubt. And have you also on the other side of the coin, if I can ask you both questions, have you ever seen Arab anger, not only in the Middle East, but really across capitals all across Europe and even in North America right now?
Alon Pinkas/Israeli Diplomat :No, I mean the short answer, the snap answer is no, I have not. And now to somewhat elaborate on that Look, 2023 is arguably the worst year in Israel's history. Then came October 7th, and that became the worst day in Israel's history. Now the year 2023 began with Mr Netanyahu's constitutional coup and the pushback from a large swath of the population, hundreds of thousands every week, demonstrating against him. It was divisive, it was toxic, it was politically explosive. And then came October 7th.
Alon Pinkas/Israeli Diplomat :That day became a point of inflection, if you will, in terms of the anger. But I have to say, dana, this anger, it has two targets. One is Hamas, which was contained in your question, and it's not just anger, it's this resolve and determination to hit them as hard as possible and to get rid of them, eliminate, eradicate, obliterate all these synonyms and euphemisms. But there's also a brewing I mean, it's right up there, but a brewing that's not yet manifest in the streets of anger, disappointment, distrust, mistrust with Mr Netanyahu. So you take those two combined to answer your questions specifically and the answer is no. I have not seen these levels of anger, frustration, devastation and even humiliation that we're experiencing.
Dana Lewis :Before we move to the Palestinian anger in the Arab street. If I can coin it that way, who is running the show in Israel in terms of government? Because the public feels that Netanyahu betrayed them on a number of fronts, but, more than anything, he doesn't have intelligence failure ever in history, the history of Israel. So then you have a war cabinet. Is Netanyahu just speaking as the Prime Minister, or is he still driving the show?
Alon Pinkas/Israeli Diplomat :Well, constitutionally and politically speaking, he runs the show without the trust, without the respect, without the confidence of the public or, for that matter, the military. His government is completely and comprehensively dysfunctional, inept and incompetent, but that's beside the point. In terms of managing the war, the war cabinet, constitutionally, in terms of his authority, he runs the show, but politically he doesn't really, because the war cabinet consists of himself, defense Minister Yof Galant, who is also going to be held responsible eminently for this failure, the real intelligence failure but is also not on good terms with Mr Netanyahu who, if our viewers and listeners recall, who fired him in March for planning to go out publicly on the 26th of March and warn that the constitutional sorry coup that I just referred to was encroaching and impinging on military preparedness and readiness. Okay, then there are two gentlemen who joined the war cabinet from an opposition party. One is Benny Gant, a former Defense Minister and a former IDF Chief of Staff, and the other is Gadi, lieutenant General Reserve, gadi Aizenkot, who's also a former IDF Chief of Staff. So between the three of them, defense Minister Galant, benny Gant and Gadi Aizenkot, mr Netanyahu is essentially outnumbered in the cabinet.
Alon Pinkas/Israeli Diplomat :But over this overarching, overriding and above it all stands, a unique, almost unprecedented American involvement in the management of the war. Not the tactical, although they have had their say and had their opinions and reservations about some tactical plans, but in terms of the operational, not yet, not even the strategic, just the operational conduct of the war. There are the Americans, thank you. Russia invaded Ukraine in February of 2022. You haven't seen the American Secretary of State, anthony Blinken, who is Secretary of State then, of course, and is Secretary of State now. You haven't seen him sit down three times in an Israeli war, I'm sorry, in a Ukrainian war cabinet. He has sat three times in an Israeli war cabinet. The US dispatched a three-star Lieutenant General, marine General General Glyn, to Israel 10 days ago, and so the Americans have a major say on how this is being run. And so back to your question.
Dana Lewis :After all this elaboration and I digressed somewhat- no, it's really important that it is unprecedented American involvement in the running of the government of Israel, at least when it comes to the war in Gaza.
Alon Pinkas/Israeli Diplomat :Yeah, and of course I haven't pointed to it. There is this massive American force building in the Eastern Mediterranean two carrier strike groups, the Gerald Ford and the Dwight Eisenhower. There is the 26th Marine Expeditionary Force which is stationed not far. That's 2,000 Marines. And just yesterday CENTCOM, the US Central Command, announced that an Ohio-class nuclear submarine, the USS Florida, is also moving into the Mediterranean. Now what all this force structure means, we can deliberate forever. What it got, how it pertains to your question, dana, is that Mr Netanyahu does not call the shots, as you would expect a prime minister to call the shots at a time like this.
Dana Lewis :OK, that's key when we go to the other question of the anger on the Arab Street and in European capitals and elsewhere, because Netanyahu is pretty predictable in his ability to ignore a lot of that. But the US is much more sensitive to that growing backlash and public opinion that the war has already gone too far. I mean, as we speak, several major United Nations bodies and I know what Israel thinks of United Nations bodies but they carry weight in terms of human rights. On Monday they've called a United Call for Humanitarian Seize Fire in Gaza. You have 18 signatories, un High Commission of Human Rights, world Health Organization, un Chief. The entire population is besieged and under attack, quote-unquote, denied access to essentials for survival, bombed in their homes. It goes on and at the end the statement says 30 days, enough is enough. This must stop now. And that puts pressure, I think added pressure on the US.
Alon Pinkas/Israeli Diplomat :Yeah, it does. It does and it's becoming evident, and it became evident, in fact, in Secretary of State Blinken's most recent visit here three days ago, two and a half days ago, friday, in which he, in closed doors and in quiet, discreet meetings, expressed US concerns. Now the US concerns pertain to two or three different issues. Here. The US is not necessarily happy with the Israeli concept that is being enunciated publicly, that this is going to be a prolonged conflict, that this is going to take many weeks, indeed even months. As the defense minister of that very same talent that we referred to earlier, the US is unhappy with that because that bogs the US back into this. Moving to another level, the longer it takes, the more likely, or the dynamics of an escalation can be set in motion, which is why partially why the US sends such a huge naval force to the Eastern Mediterranean. So escalation, so-called horizontal escalation, meaning that the conflict in Gaza could move, or spread, as the Americans like to term this, into Lebanon, which leads to the third and most upper level of American not frustration yet, but I would call it impatience With Israel that whatever the military operation in Gaza is and however justified it is and it is justified and however supportive the US is of that operation and it is very supportive the US is basically the Americans are basically saying Biden administration is saying to Israel okay, we got you back, you're good, do whatever is necessary, do it quickly.
Alon Pinkas/Israeli Diplomat :But give us a simple broad brush description of what next the day after. What are the scenarios? Who's going to govern Gaza? Let's assume you destroy Hamas militarily and you incapacitate it politically to the point that they cannot govern Gaza. We're fine. We America, we're fine with that. But give us a glimpse of what you're thinking about the day after. Which brings me to your point about the UN. Israel is always quick in many cases, you know understandably, to dismiss the UN for its you know bias and hypocrisy and bureaucratic slow moving.
Alon Pinkas/Israeli Diplomat :Right, right, and it's all true, and it's all true. But If there is going to be a long-term, durable possible I'm not saying it's necessarily gonna happen solution in the Gaza Strip post-Tramas which is what it says is a must which the US, at least publicly, tends to agree. Secretary of State Lincoln said on several occasions in the last 10 days, in the last week, that reversion to the status quo on days is unacceptable, meaning that Hamas maintains residual political power and essentially control Gaza. That's unacceptable. Okay, in any scenario, the UN is gonna have to play a role. So if I were Israel, if I were in a decision-making position or advising a decision-making group or person, I would say be careful with the UN, you know be smart.
Dana Lewis :They may have to play a key role in the day after Hamas, if there is a day after Hamas.
Alon Pinkas/Israeli Diplomat :Well, okay, that's a fair question, dana. I mean, if there is a day after there could conceivably not be a day after and we could, you know this is gonna be, you know, a horrific and tragic rendition of a groundhog day, that this is gonna go on and on and on and every day is gonna look like the next one, and then it's gonna stop, and the year from now we're gonna have a recurrence of the same thing. But, but if there is a day after Hamas and let's do this by I'll do it shortly, succinctly let's do it by elimination daily. Okay, who cannot rule Gaza?
Alon Pinkas/Israeli Diplomat :Well, hamas clearly cannot rule Gaza. Israel clearly cannot rule Gaza because Israel does not want to capture or occupy or stay in the Gaza Strip for years. The Palestinian Authority, which Secretary of State Lincoln yesterday, in his meeting with Mahmoud Abbas, the president of the Palestinian Authority, indicated that he wants the Palestinian Authority to play a greater role. The Palestinian Authority could play a greater role, but certainly not on, you know, driving into Gaza on Israeli tanks or bayonets. The US certainly doesn't want to rule Gaza because A the US doesn't want to be back down with Ukraine and NATO and Russia and the long-term.
Dana Lewis :And the last thing the US wants is having US soldiers turn up dead in Gaza.
Alon Pinkas/Israeli Diplomat :Exactly. And so you look left and you look right and you're saying, okay, so if not Israel, if not the Palestinian Authority, if not the US, if not Hamas, obviously, and if not Egypt, which I didn't mention, that doesn't want anything to do with 2.2 million destitute, impoverished and frustrated people who then, well then, you reach the almost bi-elimination, the inevitable conclusion that this needs to be an international force, a trusteeship, if you want, what was called in Kosovo or in East Timor, a neo-trusteeship, as opposed to the old trusteeship of the colonialization era.
Dana Lewis :Do you think, Ambassador Pinkes, do you think that's where we're heading?
Alon Pinkas/Israeli Diplomat :Let me put it this way I think that anything else that has been tried failed.
Alon Pinkas/Israeli Diplomat :So if you come up they know you or anyone who's watching us with 37 reasons why a trusteeship won't work, I automatically and in advance agree with you.
Alon Pinkas/Israeli Diplomat :But I know for a fact what hasn't worked until now, which is why an international force or a trusteeship can, it will, could be the only plausible, durable solution. Now let me add one thing to this In the American view and I'm not saying they're right or wrong and I'm not saying they have a coherent, comprehensive plan this is probably somewhat half-baked at this point, but what happens in Gaza could and should be, in the American eyes this is not me speaking extended to the West Bank, meaning that out of this horrific, tragic, devastating debacle of September I'm sorry, of October 7th, there's a silver lining kind of you know, blurry silver lining of an international force that would be stationed in Gaza as a BOT, build, operate, transfer of Governability, but that will be extended to the West Bank. And here we go. We're back to the two-state model as a political option. Now, I know, let me just add one sentence to be politically correct with my own countrymen. This is not popular right now, this is not palatable. Right now, this is not saleable, marketable whatever right now.
Alon Pinkas/Israeli Diplomat :Think six, 10, 12 months ahead. This is the only thing that could work. Only thing that could work and I'm not saying it's not without flaws and deficiencies, but it's the only thing.
Dana Lewis :And, by the way, some of the elements of that might include both states, for instance, so it wouldn't be seen as an outside force. It would have to be something that Palestinians could accept.
Alon Pinkas/Israeli Diplomat :Mia Culpa, I should have said that and you helped me out on this. This has, it's a prerequisite, it's a must have an Arab component in it so it becomes legitimate for both the Palestinians to accept and somewhat legitimate for the Russians and the Chinese. So it's not to strike it down with a veto vote at the UN Security Council. So, yes, yes, it's gonna have to include preferably Saudi Arabia, also the UAE and whoever else chooses to join the effort as a package deal to the Palestinians. We the Arabs support this. We the Arabs will help fund this. We the Arabs will back this international effort that will be made of UN and NATO, or Asian or it doesn't matter. I don't wanna speculate into the composition of this force, but this has to be done.
Dana Lewis :The Palestinian Authority under Mahmoud Abbas and Fatah are unlikely. Well, first of all, they wouldn't want Israel to pave the road for them to go back into Gaza, because they would be seen as an Israeli proxy force. That's about the last thing that they would want for any credibility in Gaza. So, but even if Abbas was willing to step up and say, okay, israel out, we'll go back in and run Gaza. I mean, it was tragic in 2006, 2007,. Right, I mean they just were thought to be corrupt in and out and there was inter-fighting long before the 2007 takeover by Hamas. I mean there was street fighting in neighborhoods and different clans. I mean Gaza just melted down. So I don't know how the PA, as weak as they are now, anybody would push them in there and think that they would be a credible authority.
Alon Pinkas/Israeli Diplomat :I think it's a, the proposal, the idea, the notion that the PA Palestinian Authority can be pushed into Gaza as a dead-on delivery idea. You're absolutely right in how you describe this in 2000, going back to 2006 and 2007, when there was an election in Gaza in 2006 and Hamas won and by 2007, they basically executed half of the PLO, or the Palestinian Authority.
Dana Lewis :So much for Palestinian unity, by the way, because people with the numbers including the current generation of Palestinians thinks they're all brothers in arms, but in fact they were killing each other and throwing each other off rooftops Forking each other with passion.
Alon Pinkas/Israeli Diplomat :And you know, look, I have no illusions about the Palestinians. I'm not one of those peaceniks who believes that you know, if you build it, they will come. It's because the old baseball movie cliche that they will have.
Dana Lewis :Did you ever like? I mean during that time sorry again I've jumped in, but did you ever, during that time of Rabin, for instance, nobody was singing Kumbaya and saying you know, we're going to happily ever after? I mean, it was thought to be the lesser of many evils to do a piece. Tell me if I'm wrong. I don't mean to answer the question that I'm asking you, but it was thought to be the lesser of many evils for the Israeli public to get the hell out of the West Bank and get out of Gaza and try a two-state solution. And Rabin said if we don't do it now, we're going to be facing something like what you're facing right now.
Alon Pinkas/Israeli Diplomat :Well, yeah, rabin said that and that was at the core of the Oslo Accords. Logic, but fast forward seven years from Oslo to the year 2000,. And that there was the Camp David Summit of July 2000 that Clinton then President Bill Clinton hosted with Prime Minister Eudbach and Arafat, and that was Israel's most comprehensive. It fell short, obviously, and there's a lot of criticism that Israel wasn't 100% behind this. Okay, were you there? No, I wasn't there because I was Chief of Staff of the Foreign Minister, who resigned in protest a week before. But I was there for the preparation and, more importantly, I was there for the negotiations, for the subsequent negotiations in October, november and December of 2000 with the new Foreign Minister at the time, shlomo Benami. Professor Shlomo Benami.
Dana Lewis :Now, do you think some of that's deliverable now? Like, if you look at, okay, arafat couldn't pull the trigger, I mean he couldn't sign on. But if you look at it now, land swap, access to Jerusalem, holy sites, all of them, I mean they went through everything. There wasn't a right of return for Palestinian refugees but there was compensation. I mean a lot of the issues were resolved. Even now, with all the settlement building which has gone. You know it's the turbo mode under Netanyahu and Sharon. But even with that, if you do land swap, you know 13% of the West Bank or whatever, a lot of the elements are still there, right?
Alon Pinkas/Israeli Diplomat :The elements are there, but let's divide this into two. First, you know we're still in. You know we're a month after that devastation, that the buckle of October 7th. So if you tell Israelis now a Palestinian state, they immediately, by the way, very naturally, very, very expectantly, they're saying 7th of October is now going to happen in 15 points along the West Bank, which is by far closer to Israel, more open to Israel's major cities. You're going to see recurrences of 7th of October.
Dana Lewis :That's not unfounded paranoia anymore.
Dana Lewis :That's not any logical person would say it didn't work in Gaza. They couldn't be quiet in Gaza. We're going to give them the West Bank and put them even closer to the heart of Israel and expect that they're not going to arm with rockets and that they're not going to attack us in three years or five years or whatever it's going to be 100% and you know people are going back to the well, you just need one terrorist with a anti-aircraft shoulder missile to shoot down a United Airlines 787 landing in Israel, because it's a kilometer and a half, it's a mile.
Alon Pinkas/Israeli Diplomat :That's one level. So selling the two-state solution based on those parameters right now is dead on delivery, as I said before. But the international presence, the trustee ship, if you will, the Neo trustee ship, not to rehash those complicated terms that could work a year from now, and because it's based on a very simple, horrible but nonetheless a simple equation data. It goes like this the Palestinians can't govern and Israel can't stay. The Palestinians are a failed state in the making, yet Israel does not want to annex that government. Now, for that, the West Bank. For that to happen and I'm moving fast forward into uncharted waters here for that to happen, you need a new government in Israel and possibly, conceivably, hopefully, a new leadership with the Palestinians.
Alon Pinkas/Israeli Diplomat :To tell you that this is a simple thing, no, so this incident, this crisis, this ongoing raging war provided us with a solid anchor, a base. Let's start with Gaza. It was always. What are we going to do with Gaza, even if we get along with the Palestinians in the West Bank? Well, there's still Gaza. So that's a no. Let's now reverse this. Let's start with Gaza, with this international force Now I'm not an advocate for this Just going by elimination, everything else fails, everything else fails. I just don't see any other feasible or viable formula that can work.
Dana Lewis :Wouldn't it be ironic if Hamas, who blew up bombs and televives during the Oslo Accords, who, at every opportunity, with Iran's backing, has tried to destroy any chance of a workable two-state solution or a real peace plan? Wouldn't it be ironic if they're attacked on October the 7th, actually led to something long-term renewed effort to bring about peace between the two peoples?
Alon Pinkas/Israeli Diplomat :Yeah, you're exactly right. I mean, that's the silver lining that I may be too hasty in seeing, but you can even broaden the lens here, the perspective here. Hamas wanted to undermine any type of political arrangement not that there was any political negotiation process in the last decade the last, in fact, was John Kerry, a Secretary of State under Obama in 2014. But Hamas wanted to foil any type of understanding, undermine an Israeli Saudi normalization process, and out of this could emerge two new realities, as you, I think, precisely and appreciably pointed to. One is that the two-state solution a year from now again a year from now is back on the table, back on the agenda, as the only workable, feasible solution.
Alon Pinkas/Israeli Diplomat :And to the Saudi Arabia the Saudis and again, I don't pretend to go into MBS Muhammad bin Salman's head or the Saudi intelligence services mindset, I'm not an expert on that but if they saw September again, I keep on saying September if they saw October 7th, they should see this as a pretentious event that could affect them. They saw the Iranian involvement, not direct. Not direct in terms of the planning or the tactical decision making, but in terms of the encouragement, the mentorship and the inspiration. They see what the Saudis are doing with the Houthis in Yemen. They see what the Saudis are doing with the Iranians are doing with the Houthis in Yemen, but they see what the Iranians are doing with Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Alon Pinkas/Israeli Diplomat :To bring it all together, this terrible, devastating event of October 7th could prove to be their undoing in terms of the future landscape of the Middle East. So, both the two states and Israeli normalization I don't want to sound too normalization with Saudi Arabia I don't want to sound too optimistic. I'm not too optimistic. All I'm saying is that this could be a and I said it before that this is an inflection point that could also prove to be positive, if I can use that word here.
Dana Lewis :Quick question on widening war. If you follow your thoughts on Iran and what role they may have played with Hamas, isn't it also natural that they would, at a certain point of desperation, probably want to torpedo any long term plan in Gaza by pushing the launch button with the Hezbollah in the north?
Alon Pinkas/Israeli Diplomat :Yeah, okay. So as for the escalation, you know there are two types of escalation here. There is deliberate escalation, which the Iranians can generate or foments, but I think they're being at this point. They're being deterred not by Israel but by the USS Gerald Ford and the USS Dwight Eisenhower.
Alon Pinkas/Israeli Diplomat :I think that the Iranians understand that this is a bridge too far if they escalate this, but but and this is a major but there is an inadvertent escalation or miscalculation that leads a series of local events that leads to a rolling escalation, and, and you know, and then someone's going to write a book entitled at the March of Folly and Folly, and, and, and we're all going to look back and see how did we not see the signs? Well, the signs are there and the miscalculation in Lebanon is is staring us in the eye. I don't know that the Iranians are willing to pay the price, because I think both President Biden and Secretary of State Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and and Director of the CIA Burns have all warned them publicly and quietly, directly or through intermediaries. I don't think Iran would want to risk that at this point. I may be wrong.
Dana Lewis :Well, we, we might. We hope that you're right. We hope that you're right. So Alon Pink is. Mr Ambassador, it's great to talk to you, sir, and, for all your perspective, I hope we can do it against sometime. And I really do appreciate all your time and thoughts and reflection and you're one of those people that, as I said as we were getting ready to do the interview, I appreciate the fact that you don't have the quick. You know, you don't. You don't speak in conclusive terms because you understand that there are so many untied threads here and it can go a lot of different directions and all of them at once.
Alon Pinkas/Israeli Diplomat :So thank you, dana. Like I told you before we started recording this, they don't pay me anymore to come up with one liners and conclusive remarks, so so I succumb to reality, and I know that it's more complex.
Dana Lewis :They need people like you telling them that that range and multi layered, I'm sure they, I'm sure they get it, but sometimes they need to be reminded of it, right?
Alon Pinkas/Israeli Diplomat :Well, that's what I'm doing here with you, thank you sir. Thank you, Dana.
Dana Lewis :And that's our backstory. On Israel's war in Gaza, former UN ambassador and US national security advisor, john Bolton writes quote Hamas just didn't wake up one day and decide by itself to attack Israel. Along with Hezbollah, yemen's Houthi rebels, iraqi Shia militia and many others, hamas is a beneficiary of Iranian weapons, training and finance. Its sneak attack has to be seen as part of Tehran's larger strategy. He goes on to say that, taken by surprise, jerusalem is still struggling to grasp comprehensively Iran's plan. Tehran's surrogates are concealing their hand, but Hezbollah leader Hasran Nasrallah's recent speech shows their menace and resolve to break the will of Israel and its supporters by threatening wider regional war. And that's where we are folks on the doorstep of something more destabilizing, worse than a war in Gaza. And that's just the way Iran and Russia, and possibly China, would like it. I'm Dana Lewis. Please share back story and I'll talk to you again soon.